There is more than just the BVN deal at works here. Probably the single biggest factor is what is happening with markets. If we see things stabalize or interest pick up in juniors I see the FMG share price slowly appreciating to the low teens until BVN starts drilling. After the low teens what happens to the share price will largely be determined by two things (not including general market conditions)

1. Results from BVN drilling

2. How Jim/Board spends the money he is getting from BVN and any shares he decides to distribute. Jim is a wheeler and dealer and in this environment he is looking for opportunitie particularly since he gave of the majority of his only property. I am betting he wants to sink his teeth into another project he can call his own. If and when he does this could be as big catalyst that know is really talking about. FMG has been a one trick (property) pony but at some point, likely in the near term once they are more financially stable, that will change.

My best guess, assuming the junior market and interest in juniors remains low, is that the share price gradually appreciates to low teens with the release of a few key pieces of news over the next 6-9 months including finalizing BVN deal, cash payment from BVN, some results from past and current exploration, FMG picking up new property, and BVN drill program planned/starting. The real potential for the share price to increase doesnt occur until 2014 when BVN jumps in with both feet with a major program and moves to push this into product when buyout speculation starts. At that point 50cents is a minimum value assuming shares outstanding are still around 50 million.

BVN is motivated to get this done. They have been advertising that they are looking for geographical diversity for a while now and have specifically pegged Mexico. They want to get established in Mexico and have no other options at this point.