I think the next trigger could be when Champion officially announces the re-opening of Bloom.  Although many people assume this is a given, the final big step will be confirmation of final financing.  I believe that the open financing deadline was supposed to be last Thursday, and nothing has surfaced since then.  Given the economics of the Bloom Lake project, and the current iron ore pricing environment (which is also strengthening), it seems to be a given that the project should start again.  Therefore, there shouldn't be too much difficulty getting financing.  If that is announced, along with an official start-up date (late February?) then I think that CIA shares will move up very quickly, to at least $2/share.  Come to think of it, perhaps I should be invested in CIA rather than FNC.

Anyway, I think that once Champion releases positive news, that should have a very positive impact on FNC's share price, much as it did in the spring when the rumours first came out (at the time, CIA came up temporarily to around $1.47 per share).  A doubling of CIA's share price to $2 would add slightly over $10m to the assets for FNC, which divided by a float of 151m shares, comes out to another 6.6 cents per share.  So that should put FNC at around 12 cents as a new baseline.

An argument can be made that FNC's holdings of CIA are locked up for a hold period until later in 2018, thus devaluing the asset.  That will be a lower risk than it was four or five months ago, for two reasons:  CIA's share value will have more certainty (any future movement would probably be upward as they move towards re-commencement), and the time frame before the CIA assets can be unlocked is much closer.

A bigger question is this:  What might happen with FNC's holdings once CIA announces an official re-start at Bloom?  Is Peter negotiating with CIA?  Michael O'Keeffe must have considered the possibility of making a deal with Fancamp to repatriate those shares.