Lethal, thanks for referring to a previous analysis posted by TeleProbe which I appended below for reference. Hope that it will not be truncated when I upload, hence I attached the link you have provided, just in case.

http://agoracom.com/ir/Fancamp/forums/discussion/topics/517476-ferrotitanium-prices-are-at-historical-levels/messages/1641779#message

I have not spent the time to dissect the details provided in the post below. Only look at the macro components. In general term, I tend to agree with most, if not all, the analysis and discussions/speculations by TeleProbe.

1. We only talk Magpie, there is more to add to FNC valuation, and that's the problem that has caused heartache for many of us. I have stated this before, and this is no joke. If I won a $50M jackpot (this is good enough, don't need the $500M Mega thing in the USA), I would offer a 50% premium to scoop up the entire FNC, everything, Magpie et al. If there is a bidding war I would go as far as perhaps $45M (need to keep $5M in reserve for a waterfront property in the city)...and $45M is about 2x of the current market cap. I am not saying that this is what FNC is worth. It's only my limitation and willingness to spend up to $45M. If my offer is trumped by others, that would be fine, since I would, most likely, to make some cool million selling my stake to the winner (wiping tears all the way to the bank). It would be reanable to substitute "poor me" with an entity who actually has some real money and also be willing to go beyond the $45M, but would also be willing to let go for some obscene profit (remember the Falconbridge gambit played by Robert Friedland in the Voisey's Bay saga?). There is certain money to be made here.

2. The deposit is so huge, so no matter how you slice it as TeleProbe has done, the in-situ ore value is in the trillions of dollars. So, one need to apply a fraction (e.g. 5%, 1%) to take into account of the cost of taking it out from the ground, etc. and refining/purifying it to the standard for selling at high price. But the bottomline is that we have the stuff coming out of our ears, noting that the ores are sitting in the hill, so they don't even have to dig a pit, just scoop up the stuff from the surface. For 1% assumption the value came up to $82.45/share. 1% is a pretty low number to convert in-situ to above ground and ready-for-sale at some decent price. To be ultra convervative let's try 0.1% (TeleProbe would cringe). This itsy bitsy number would still result in $8.2/s which is above $5.0.

3. Agreed also that FNC may be too small to tackle this huge thing, but the value is there for some majors who could develop it in a controlled manner, since flooding the market with stuff would bring the price down...They all know the supply/demand principle.

TeleProbe, very nice analysis, but I would urge you to consider a $5/s as an initial bid. After all, this level, say $6.0/s represents a 6.00/0.30 = a 20 bagger. Let's see now, $10,000 x 20 = $200,000, $50,000 x 20 = $1M (a millionaire, but this is taxable!).

goldhunter

---------------posted by TeleProbe-----------------

Re: Ferrotitanium Prices are at "Historical Levels"