Hunger
posted on
Sep 30, 2011 05:31PM
Resource projects cover more than 1,713 km2 in three provinces at various stages, including the following: hematite magnetite iron formations, titaniferous magnetite & hematite, nickel/copper/PGM, chromite, Volcanogenic Massive and gold.
Hunger
Preamble:
In my 9/28/11 conversation with Smith, we understood the game.He is trying to use info to lure in large shareholders and majors, while I’m trying to learn everything I can geologically, promoting angle, and objectives, out to retail to improve momentum before a news release.I feel like we are on the same team, yet sometimes it feels at odds.He can only reveal so much, and I can ask as much as necessary to make me informed of my investment. I’m conjecturing here, but sometimes I think they have so much data flowing in, that luring the Major in takes precedence over offering news releases that help retail –as if they’ll get to it when they get to it.In the end we want the same thing, a buyout for properties or demand for an IPO.
But it can be frustrating when I can surmise that in luring a major in, the major gets information before retail in a news release. For example, we know they have at least some assays in for all our properties.And some properties have all assays in. Why wait until all are in, some must be decent enough to release?Based on my conversation with Smith, I can tell by his enthusiasm something awesome is happening with Magpie and it is bait to lure a Major, which he said he’s chasing now.However, he could not give detail what’s got him excited about Magpie, and I’ll wait to read about it in a few weeks. Although this excites me, because as we know, Smith is not one to exaggerate or excessively pumped, so whatever he’s got must be good, I also feel frustrated. Why should majors know anything before we long and loyal shareholders?Certainly our long suffering loyalty deserves information before a new major.Is there a disadvantage to first NR, then using the bait to lure a major?Perhaps someone can explain this. But again, we are both on the same team. He’s got as many shares as many of us.
Much of this may be pre-traversed ground, but much helps newbie’s place Fancamp’s low SP into perspective of why there will be forthcoming multiples. Unfortunately, until NR come out, he really couldn't get into geo specifics, so Hoov and the likes may be disappointed. But all "in the fullness of time."
Stock Dump
Smith: Stock is being dumped, but has no relationship to the value of the assets we are sitting on. We’ve added hugely to that asset base over the last year.And even though CHM is coming out with a 43-101, there stock is suffering as well.
SG: The go-to conspiracy theory is Mineralfields is suppressing the price, because they know we’ll need financing at some point.
Smith’s response was dismissive of this.For example, no one in their right mind would invest in 17.5% working interest in a 75 million dollar program at .25c a share. But someone is dumping, but he won’t even speculate on who it is. He doesn’t have time to dwell on that part, except when he gets calls from angry shareholders.
CHM & FERMONT:
Smith: This information that CHM is going to come out with next week, the upgraded preliminary economic assessment of Firelake North, is “hugely important” for CHM and FNC.As he said to Larsen, like it or not “our fortunes are intertwined here.”Things might not change if we were all under one roof, except FNC would have to do cash calls to pay for the interest.
SG: Retail’s big fear is that you are going to do financing at this price, further diluting the company.
Smith says it wouldn’t be worth it. He does not intend to at this level.
SG: Good. The other big fear is a buyout of CHM or/and FNC at this low SP development.I just wonder if that can happen.
SMITH: Champion’s preliminary economic assessment may be well north of 2 billion dollars.It will be more then there last NPV value of 1.5 billion, but greatly discounted.There tonnage over 7 to 800 million. PEA II would be between 15 to 20million tons a year –“a big number.”Thompson is 12 million tons per year.Mt Wright/Arcelor is 15 to 20 million tons per year.
SG: Champion is absolutely competitive.
SMITH: Larsen’s idea of getting his hands on an end-user to help them finance their production makes a lot of sense.However, Champion is in the same position FNC is in. They don’t want to finance 70 million at $1.00 per share nor us at .20c a share.
SG: That’s assuming they actually want to produce.
SMITH: It’s obvious from obtaining the three Thompson guys that they want to sell to a major.
SG: But their expertise is production.
SMITH: But an alternative is to sell production “outtakes” to Cliffs, Wisco, could be Arcelor (but not likely as they are tied up with Baffenland Iron and this big upgrade that they’re involved in), and Rio Tinto.
SG: To buy the outtake as opposed to just buying us/them out.
SMITH: Why do they need to buy a company, when they could just as easily get a 20-year guaranteed supply at a certain number of tons per year, say 15 million tons of concentrate a year for 20 years at market rate adjusted prices.And they know Champion now has the wherewithal to put something into production, on time, and probably under budget, because they’ve got the three guys from Consolidated Thompson. Those guys have made a lot of mistakes, but they were spectacularly successful, they’ve learned and know what the mistakes were. You can’t buy that kind of expertise.
SG: And yet those guys got Cliffs to buy out the company.Why did Cliffs buy out the company instead of buying outtakes?
SMITH says you’ve got to be in the inside to know what actually was the imedence.He speculated something like Cliffs cut Thompson at the knees when they made a bid for Wabush, Arcelor had a third, Cliffs has a third, and Thompson wanted to buy out Cliffs.Cliffs said no, then Cliffs bought out Thompson.
SG: So with Champion, the Thomson guys want to do with Champion, what they did with Thompson mines. The idea is they head towards production, the price reaches $6, $10, more?
SMITH: FNC benefits 17.5% plus NSR of that. The possibilities that Champion will ever get to production is evenly matched that it could or could not go there. Certainly CHM needs to keep the pretense of looking like they need to go into production.They’d prefer not to raise another 50 to 70 million at a production dollars.Selling out is the objective before production or the beginning. And the Thomson guys got that going in record time. The reason they got the Thompson guys on board is they have expertise that nobody else has.Expertise described as very “recent”, involves exactly the same area, same infrastructure problem, same personnel, same permitting side of things, financial side of things, and it’s all “fresh.”
We got back to argument for or against Champion share-swapping for FNC interest.What is the advantage or disadvantage of such a deal.It boils down to FNC’s concept of the value of the Fermont properties, which on the face of it is 2 ½ times the total outstanding capitalization of Champion itself based on the NPV of FireLake North a year ago.While that is a relative number, it is a number to work with.That was based on 5000 meters drilling.Next week they’ll have version two, based on 26thousand meters, which will be north of 2 billion.It will be indicated, not inferred.And that’s for a few of their 17 properties.
http://app.quotemedia.com/quotetools/newsStoryPopup.go?storyId=44816481&topic=CHM:CA&symbology=null&cp=null&webmasterId=92583
My hands started to get tired of short-hand note taking here, so I’ll summarize without details.
Lac Lamalee. Smith is very, and I say very excited and enthusiastic about Lac Lamalee assays, not all of which are in yet.But they are pulling the type of iron similar to CHM, if not more impressive.News Releases in a few weeks. He said, he preferred if I didn’t ask about it yet, I’ll read all about it. Fair enough. I mentioned that we have an opportunity to piggyback on the momentum of Champion’s NR’sright now with our own NR’s.I also encouraged him to state or hint at number values within the news releases.My opinion is that CHM jumped from the NPV, not necessarily from the assay data.
I did ask how much concern he had about where the SP is compared to ignoring the SP and going after major’s to get involved with FNC. He stated, the SP is a concern, but if he spent too much time chasing SP levels, he’d never get anything done. He wants to get us a buyout, than all the ups and downs will be forgiven.I suspect he’s sacrificing the SP by not giving news releases in order to give a major first privilege for Magpie.He will get it all out to us. But again, I encouraged him to give news releases as good assays come out –especially if it can substantially change the company’s value.He doesn’t have to wait until all assays in to news releases. Tease us along the way to a complete summation. I believe it is the right thing to do, the responsible thing to do, and it might be the legal thing to do within a time frame.
Magpie:
He said this is one he can’t talk much detail about, in contrast to other properties, and that should say a lot. But Smith couldn’t stop his enthusiasm showing through about the intersections they’ve discovered.They’ve got the bait to hook a major into Magpie, which will help sell the IPO.Not all assays are in yet, but it will be a few weeks.I took the opportunity to point out that Champion’s news releases have been excellent and we should follow suit. Again I requested to allow the news releases come out in small bits, teasing us to a big payoff. With Magpie, we can get 5 or 6 news releases before the IPO.
I gave an example of a news release progression for Magpie.1) if they found a massive blow-away intersection, then put it in a news release. 2) Then if they find another fantastic intersection, make another news release. 3) A NR that a major has bought into Magpie, 4) Than let the major do a write up and offer an estimated NPV news release.5) Tease us all the way to a news release of Fouad’s metallurgical work.6) Feasibility News Release, then finallythe payoff, 7) An IPO news release, including share distribution to Fancamp Holders.
Itold him that I hope I wasn’t offensive for telling our CEO how to do his job, but I was trying to give the retailers perspective on how we like a property’s news releases to build towards a payoff.He appreciated the perspective and said he’d likely follow Champion’s example, and with Lac Lamalee.
I think I felt satisfied that he heard and might do it. But sometimes I can’t tell if he’s humoring me or taking me serious that his track record has been spotty on news releases, but Champions has been successful and a good model to immolate.
Again, I reiterated, “Get those Magpie news releases out there.” He said he will and in a few weeks. And the metallurgical results need to be completed before Nov/Dec IPO. We should be pleased.Again, he said Magpie IPO is on schedule. He did indicate something came in last week, and he hopes it hooks a major. But he had to clamp down, because I can tell he wanted to say more about Magpie but would not. There doesn’t need to be secrets if he made a news release about it. And I can’t think of a reason not to.
I’ve got that same excitement I felt when Champion made their NPV.There’s something there that’s got him bubbling over. He mentioned Granger’s enthusiasm for Magpie as well, so I can’t wait to see what comes out.I wish the SP reflected the ripples I’m receiving. Again, if there is background momentum for this project, he’s got a responsibility to we faithful to give us a news release, and get public momentum going. We need Magpie News Releases!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I’m sure the reason he hasn’t given a NR is to courteously allow a major to buy in first, before the public comes calling to be part of Magpie. But our SP is below .20c.
Eastern Townships.
There is value in the copper, but he can’t give volume, thus can’t give monetary attachments to it. Hoov recently gave some.However, what they found is very big. This combined with downhole geophysics and airborns, gives him an excitement going forward. Again it is grassroots and they’ve got to stop for a few weeks due to hunting season.They found gold which gave him indicators. The copper was not unexpected.He’s unaware of why Uragoldbay is so active.
McFaulds:
Nothing more than they announced. I have no read of excitement.Love to be wrong. If he did find more nickel in that last assay, he’s camouflaging it well. He’s curious to see how Noront acts on our Chromite.Just got last assays in. He’ll report that soon. I suspect he found more indications that his theory is correct about C-1’s relationship to Eagle. But unless it’s many meters of massive sulphides, it won’t do much for FNC SP to raise cash to go after it.
AGM
He was doing some prep work for the AGM. I don’t remember if I told him this. But if he’s reading this, I would advise this. Don’t wait for the OCT AGM to inform people that great things will be coming. The SP is in the tank. Give news releases of a few assays before the AGM -demonstrating that great things are happening right now.Without NR’s, during the AGM he’ll be peppered with questions which he can’t answer until he makes a NR, and that will frustrate attendees, shareholders, and the SP. There is nothing worse than a CEO saying, “good things to come.” EAG and TBM both said that. Also, a CEO should never blame the environment. While blamers blame the market,other companies are getting sold for multiples. Again, don’t wait for the completion of all assays per a property. Report excellent intersection assays as they come in.This gives fodder for the public to frolic with. If he wants, we’ll pony up and pay for the cost of the news releases.
MY PREDICTIONS
Allow me to vent my frustrations. Although sub .20c allowed me to increase my position, it also feels like an underperforming baseball team missing the playoffs –which they did. An underperforming company lacks public awareness -which is the CEO’s job. Mr. Smith’s job is to create public awareness for Fancamp in addition to property discovery. Sometimes I think he forgets this, hoping property assays speak for themselves. There are too many good assays on other non-FNC properties that majors can choose from to ignore promotion. Advertise, shake hands, and convince. We haven't even got an updated FNC website, let alone 3-d representations, let alone news releases on assays, nor that crucial major investor.
I think they are getting to these things finally. But, he should be attending every convention available promoting Fancamp. He should not only be showing assays to major investors, but also making news releases on all the great intersections. If the market betrays us, at least it’s not from lack of awareness. But right now it is lack of awareness. We need agents telling our CEO where to travel to China, South America, Europe, or US to shake hands, the way CHM did. If Mr. Smith feels his energies are too spread to promote, then Granger should promote. If Granger can’t do it, then we should sell CHM interest to CHM, give FNC owners direct ownership, and let the Thompson guys take the value up. Why can they do something in record time, and we can’t?
The answer is this: HUNGER! Champion is hungry, and we should be as well.
That being said, Monday will be fun, due to CHM NR.The SP will slowly start to creep back up.CHM may help build momentum to a double from current SP.But I’m hoping we can create a triple from where we are at based on our own momentum.In the next few weeks, leaks will occur about what Lac Lamalee and Magpie are discovering. And then News Releases will complete the picture. Whoever is dumping FNC shares knows all this and therefore must be forced to cash out, probably to cover for margins.I just hope they finish up.As the dollar strengthens and institutions sell off the broad spread of commodities, momentum must be achieved in spite of the environment.Magpie, Lac Lamalee, and Champion can do this if Granger and Smith successfully bring awareness to excellent assays. The dry spell needs to be over -now.
-StockGreed