Buy on Rumor, sell on News. CHM NR was the wrong news.
posted on
Dec 15, 2010 06:19PM
Resource projects cover more than 1,713 km2 in three provinces at various stages, including the following: hematite magnetite iron formations, titaniferous magnetite & hematite, nickel/copper/PGM, chromite, Volcanogenic Massive and gold.
Disclaimer: The following is all make-believe fantasy and satire, and not to be utilized as material information.
Buy on Rumor, sell on News. CHM NR was the wrong news.
I think my skill as an investor is improving. Today, in anticipating the buy on rumor and sell on the wrong news, I set money aside to buy more CHM once this NR came out. Because, if you've been reading the posts and read Larsen and Hussey's quotations In the NR, you know the rumors continue to circulate and this is not The News. It's the news that allows our crews to take a break, but management continues to be active -just not in monitoring crew activity. Apparently, judging from the SP rebound, so others thought the same thing.
Take these two ideas:
1) What is Larsen active on, if not crew activity? DEAL NEGOTIATIONS.
2) If you read today's NR, apply one of the reasons I like the CHM CEO, as Smith pointed out, Larsen understates and underestimates everything -much to the annoyance of his promoters.
"Fire Lake North and Bellechasse already host 603 million tonnes in current NI 43-101 Mineral Resources grading 29% Total Iron." ((NPV) of US $1.637 billion)
One can assume there is a lot-lot more he's not talking about because he's not the type, but I am. He's got way over 1 billion tons on just Fire Lake North and Bellachasse alone
"...completed an assessment of the exploration potential of the historic work on fourteen (14) claim blocks from the Company's Fermont Iron Property (the "Property"). Two (2) additional claim blocks, Fire Lake North and Bellechasse already host 603 million tonnes in current NI 43-101 Mineral Resources grading 29% Total Iron. Of these fourteen (14) claim blocks, six (6) host a total of 603 million tonnes grading 30.5% Iron in Historical Mineral Resources(i) (Paquet, 1963; MRNFQ Assessment File GM 13035)."
What I find very telling is that they are not continuing to increase these two properties, and I think there is a good reason.
"We plan an initial 25,000 m of drilling during the first two quarters of 2011, to validate and potentially increase the Historical Mineral Resources(i) from the present 603 million tonnes at 30.5% Total Iron on 6 claim blocks (Moire Lake, O'Keefe-Purdy, Penguin, Silicate-Brutus, Audrey-Ernie and Big Three) into compliant NI 43-101 Mineral Resources. A further 25,000 m will be continued in the second half of the year, including a program to enhance value in the Cluster 3 area located to the southwest of Cluster 2."
I suspect the reason of stopping in the 600mil of tons range is that CHM successfully demonstrated to the current interested party (Russians) that Fire Lake North and Bellachase has the same quality and economically favorable ore as the local producing mines. Now they will attempt to demonstrate that the rest of their properties are of equal value and increase the deal.
“Champion has scheduled a 5,000 m drill program at the Moire Lake Iron Occurrence to commence in Q1-2011. The drilling will test the iron mineralization in order to validate the historical numbers as the Company seeks to significantly increase the Historical Mineral Resources(i) into NI 43-101 compliant Mineral Resource Estimates.”
“Champion has also scheduled a 6,000 m drill program at the O'Keefe Lake Iron Occurrence to commence in Q1/Q2-2011, designed to validate and potentially significantly increase the Historical Mineral Resources(i) into NI 43-101 compliant Mineral Resources Estimates. “
This comes across like a straight forward wrap up news release. However, based on news ripples, one might assume the news release belongs in the classifieds. My presumption of announcing their planned drill program and including a mention of Consolidated Thompson’s mine is a shout-out to Wisco, if you want some of what we've got, give us a call, cause time is running out -thereby creating competition. In case you don't get the link, look up Qilin Deng and Yin Xiaopeng.
http://www.wisco.com.cn/wisco_en/brief/8243.shtml
http://www.consolidatedthompson.com/s/NewsReleases.asp?ReportID=382300&_Title=Consolidated-Thompson-and-WISCO-Announce-Closing-of-240-Million-Strategic-I...
http://investing.businessweek.com/businessweek/research/stocks/private/person.asp?personId=61433965&privcapId=67192924&previousCapId=875575&previousTitle=CONSOLIDATED%20THOMPSON%20IRON%20M
"The four producers in the vicinity comprise Canada's Iron ore production estimated at more than 40 million tonnes of Iron ore concentrate per year including the recently commissioned Consolidated Thompson Iron Mines Limited's Bloom Lake mine. Indications are that the District will be producing more than 60 million tonnes of concentrate per year in the future based on disclosed expansion plans. This is a well recognized Canadian iron ore producing camp known for its high quality concentrate and relatively low operating costs."
I satirically “assume” that Smith and Granger said no to CHM overtures for Fancamp's LacLamalee and/or FNC's 17.5 percent interest. I'm curious to know how much they would have offered to FNC. So, assuming a major is interested in CHM, what's the next move in this Chess Game?
This phone is going to force me to change my bill plan: people keep asking me why aren't people buying. In fact one large shareholder called me about FNC! I'm nobody, but he asked me "This stock should be above $1, why aren't people buying?" I told him to call Smith. But I like to talk so I continued. If my opinion counts, I suspect if it's a choice between CHM which has momentum and Fancamp, then folks are choosing the lead horse over less leverage, then they'll switch to FNC once the timing feels right. Also I suspect that Smith's patient time line has hurt FNC investing motive. However, many don't realize that Granger on the board has moved Fancamp from a slow past to a fast new future. A phone call or two may confirm this fresh start. The news ripples that Granger is getting deals done right now, will probably result in NR's shortly that will demonstrate this fresh start.
http://tmx.quotemedia.com/article.php?newsid=36471934&qm_symbol=FNC
This is no slight on Peter Smith. Every CEO needs a right hand man to divide the load, especially with the number of quality properties Smith has acquired. Plus, cultivating deals that lead to a contract or a spin off requires Granger’s expertise. Also, I think Smith understood he’d need help in dealing with Fermont’s big boys -plus one, although I’m not sure either of them are good at downing vodka shots.
Hopefully the crews will discuss drill tactics and deep drill pipe snaps over the break and learn from each other's experiences. Seems deep drilling is more a craft then labor, in that it merges talent and experience with pure hard work.
Again, I reference my previous posts. We are ripe for a takeover. A spin out could save us if Lac Lamalee were the major’s objective. At this point, CHM is in the same strong position over FNC as Noront was over FWR. So CHM making another offer to FNC is an obvious. Certainly it would be more than what Pat sold his interest for. If Smith says yes, it better be $2 or more (120 million in shareswaps), but they would still have to deal for NSR and Lac Lamalee. However, can you put 17.5% interest in the shell as well? A spinoff still keeps Fancamp vulnerable.
The real gamesmanship involves utilizing the most discipline. It lay not with the investors and not with Champion, not with Smith and Granger, but with Arcelormittel , Consolidated Thompson, and Cliffs. How long can they wait before the other makes a move?
Again, thank you for indulging my ramblings,
Stock Greed