Now you have it right.....I don't like hero or zero bets..... I like bets that have a potential 10 bager and near zero downside risk..... To drill makes that downside risk a 10 bager also.... come up short and you have a .20 stock...
taking NOT paper reduces that risk to zero yet enables a very good upside potential....The same potential deposit on FNC or PRB woill have a multiplier effect on NOT shares.
Now any deal involving a JV such as the FWR deal retains that downside risk and still reduces the upside potential.... A JV involves commitments of cash etc and further complicates any major takeover of the big project...
I also hold FNC paper and would welcome taking NOT paper for the project.... as I would with PRB.... it's risk managment plain and simple.
CMP is correct about prime negotiation time..... when the drill hits the ground we either have a winner or a looser.... Taking NOT paper means you are a winner or a big winner....
I think these loose ends are why NOT info has slowed down..... the squeeze on the twins here to grind out a deal.... Will they submitt or go it alone.... The best deal time is right now.
JMHO