I think this is prime negotiation time for both PRB and FNC..... Consolidation of these 3 will provide added strength in negotiations with a major..... The downside risk would be minimal for the 2 jr's and the upside potential still in tact for all, including NOT should one of these side plays hit it big.
Lets say FNC hits a lens similar to NOT.... where's the share price going to go..... $10 to $15 and would reflect a market cap in the 300 to 450 million range.
Lets say NOT was to make a move on FNC for a 2 for one share swap.... and the same thing happened.... NOT would move over the 1 to 1.5 billion market cap range and would achieve critical mass.
Basesd on that, NOT would be trading in about the $8 to $10 range.... or about the same upside value to the FNC shareholder.... BUT the downside risk would be reduced to near zero!
Same thing for PRB.... I'd propose to trade the 3 PRB properties for 8 to 10 million NOT shares..... divy out to PRB holders on a 1 for 10 basis and the company would hold the balance.
For NOT, the upside risk of either of these plays hitting another lens is why Richard should be talking to these 2..... A major is going to want the core properties to be one nice tight package.... and this would do it. It would also re energize the market.
Have to agree these 2 are a gamble...... make a deal and they become investments. One should never let ego get in the way of risk managment.
One other positive.... Sooner or later NOT will have to split off the mcfaulds plays... The remaining plays will likely end up as 1 ,2 or more seperate entities..... Thus further upside for the jr's and additional reason to talk now. This is prime time for negotiations...... Soon the dice will be rolled..... and both will have gone beyond optimum negotiation time..... at this time NOT has significant risk that PRB or FNC could hit another lens..... thus the jr's have a better chance of geting a sweet deal.... drill a few dud holes and the bubble will have burst and negotiations will be stacked in NOT's favour.
JMHO