Exploration is close, in reality, to Lanman's cartoon, a few posts back.

Succesful exploration requires:

1. good technical knowledge (check, Exxon,Mol, Fo have it),

2. the application of good technology (check, Exxon has it)

3. perseverance (FO has it, we dont know if Exxon does)

4. a land position with a compelling story (Mako qualifies)

5. a great deal of luck (it makes the difference between an early success or a later one)

6. a recognition that not all exploration plays will pan out. Some do. some don't.

4Modric and The Knight's posts are telling. The first reminds me of mice jumping ship. The boat is sinking, 4M will save its life. The Knight's turncoat posts are no better than JR's, both cut of the same cloth.

Exploration is just like this. win some, loose some. A bad frac or a bad hole does not mean that Mako will not make it. A seasoned company geologist will turn to the data and re-assess. A seasoned company manager will listen, evaluate, and support that geologist. The VP of exploration would provide the funding to continue. Exxon has been around and has a wealth of proprietary data to fall back onto, and from which to draw parallels. And lets not forget that whole plan was not to test F1 and walk away if that particular well did not pan out. I would not doubt that Exxon has its own plan in mind, which would include the additional drilling in other areas of the trough.

It is hard not to feel the pain when share prices go down, but remember, those selling at this time are those that least understand exploration (like 4Modric and The Knight).

My own feeling, from what I have seen and read, is that Exxon will proceed to Stage 2. However, it will use the latest results to refine the plan. I would expect addional drilling in 2010, and that drilling, though it will be billed as a joint decision between MOL-FO and Exxon, in preactice it will be Exxon's make or break plan to make this land give up its goods.

Holding

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