"This kind of time line may require Exxon to sign up for next stage of the agreement before the final flow testing is complete"

We all look at Stage 2 as being an "opt-in" point. In reality, I believe it's more of an 'opt-out' point. What I mean is that I think Exxon has planned on staying until at least 2012, but stage 2 is there 'just in case' they want out earlier for some reason.

Heres why I think that:

"The four-year exploration program including appraisals is a key part of the program, which will really dictate whether the feasibility of future production can be established. Then a development pilot will test a certain amount of wells in order to put even more certainty until the large-scale development program can be carried out. "

"It's very important both for Exxon and MOL there are very clear exit points at the key stages of the operation. I.e., that the risks, of course, and mitigation of the risks can happen in different stages, depending on the maturity of the program."

ZOLTAN ALDOTT, EVP EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION, MOL GROUP, April 2008

So he's calling Stage 2 an 'exit' point, not an 'entry' point. I think there's a big difference.