Re: Great new article & video: Exxon, unconventional gas & fraccing - Lanman
posted on
Aug 20, 2009 01:51PM
Developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources
Thanks Lanman for your thoughts and notes on the MZST technology. With the first real appraisal well probably being the Foldeak 1, as per earlier discussions, we are not likely to hear too much about the overall potential of the Sloznok until they have completed quite a few stages by the sounds of it. Therefore the first numbers we do hear from the testing may be from only one or two zones and may not be indicative of what a fully functioning multi-frack Sloznok well could eventually produce.
The following is a press release by Enerplus Income Trust and relates to their just announced purchase of a 30% working interest in part of the Marcellus shale play in Pennsylvania. Enerplus paid $400 million to buy into the play as a non-working partner and hopes to eventually recover 1.4 TCF by their best estimate from drilling 2500 wells over the next 10 - 15 years. The price paid and the drilling costs, along with some other stats on well performance, may give us a better indication of where the value lies with the Mako assets. I believe that Enerplus got a very good deal on their purchase due to the current glut in North America and the sub $5 pricing for natural gas in the Eastern US currently. Regards Paul
Enerplus Resources Fund ("Enerplus") is pleased to announce that it has entered into agreements with three private natural gas producers, Chief Oil & Gas LLC, Chief Exploration & Development LLC and a limited partnership managed by Tug Hill, Inc. (collectively "Chief"), to acquire 30% of their interests in the Marcellus shale natural gas resource play in the northeastern United States. Chief currently owns an average 72% working interest in approximately 540,000 gross acres, the majority of which is located in Pennsylvania within the heart of the Marcellus shale gas play. Upon completion of the acquisition, Enerplus will own an average 21.5% non-operated working interest in this acreage (approximately 116,000 net acres). Total consideration for the acquisition is US$406 million (approximately US$3,500/net acre) comprised of US$162.4 million in cash to be paid upon closing and US$243.6 million to be paid as a carry of 50% of Chief's future drilling and completion costs in the Marcellus shale play, which we expect will be invested over the next four years. As part of the transaction, Enerplus will also enter into Area of Mutual Interest ("AMI") agreements with Chief that will allow us the opportunity to partner on any follow-on acquisitions or swaps in the Marcellus play. These AMIs will provide us with the opportunity to jointly acquire more land under the current ownership structure as well as the potential to increase our working interest ownership and possibly operate in certain new areas. Enerplus is obligated to pay the carry amount in order to retain the full 30% working interest in Chief's lands and participate in the AMI. We expect the transaction to close in early September 2009, subject to standard closing conditions, with an effective date of May 1, 2009. "This transaction is a significant step in high-grading our asset base to provide greater growth potential and further improve our operating performance", stated Gordon Kerr, President & Chief Executive Officer. "Enerplus has gained an entry point into one of the premier shale gas resource plays in North America, consistent with our strategic direction, with an experienced partner who has a proven track record in shale gas development. With the play in the early stages of development, we believe there is tremendous opportunity for future production, reserves and value growth". In conjunction with the acquisition, Enerplus has agreed to issue 9.25 million trust units through a Canadian bought deal financing at a price of CDN$21.65 per trust unit for gross proceeds of CDN$200 million. A portion of the net proceeds are expected to be used to pay for the upfront cash portion of the acquisition and the remainder will initially be used to repay bank indebtedness and subsequently used to fund a portion of Enerplus' on-going capital expenditures. DETAILS OF THE TRANSACTION THE MARCELLUS SHALE The Marcellus shale is the largest unconventional natural gas resource play in North America according to an April 2009 report prepared for the U.S. Department of Energy (the "USDE Report"). Spanning six states in the northeastern U.S., the play covers an estimated 95,000 square miles. Given the much larger aerial extent of this play compared to the other shale gas plays, according to the USDE Report, the Marcellus play has the highest estimate of original gas in place of up to 1,500 trillion cubic feet ("Tcf") and approximately 262 Tcf of technically recoverable resource. For additional information regarding the quantities estimated in the USDE Report, see "Information Regarding Contingent Resource and Other Estimates" at the end of this news release. The use of horizontal drilling technology and hydraulic fracture treatments has been the key to unlocking the large resource basins in North America, making them economically feasible to produce. With its proximity to the large northeast U.S. natural gas market and expanding pipeline take-away capacity, natural gas from the Marcellus receives a premium price and has one of the lowest breakeven prices of all natural gas producing areas in North America. FUTURE GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR ENERPLUS Enerplus is acquiring an average 21.5% working interest in approximately 540,000 gross acres in the heart of the Marcellus shale fairway with an average net revenue interest of approximately 82%. This land is located primarily in Pennsylvania, concentrated in the northeast and southwest areas of the state, with additional acreage in West Virginia and Maryland. Much of the acreage is contiguous with an average primary lease term of approximately five years. As well, the majority of the leases allow extensions of the primary term for an additional five years. Based upon the current development plans, Enerplus would participate in the drilling of approximately 750 gross wells over the next five years and production volumes are expected to increase to approximately 100 MMcfe/day of natural gas to Enerplus before royalties over that period. Current production is approximately 8.2 MMcfe/day gross (1.8 MMcfe/day to Enerplus) and using our internal estimates prepared in accordance with National Instrument 51-101 ("NI 51-101"), Enerplus is acquiring approximately 8.0 Bcfe of gross proved plus probable reserves based upon our working interest using forward prices and costs as of June 8, 2009. Enerplus has conducted an internal evaluation of the leases in accordance with NI 51-101 and has determined a best estimate of contingent resources of approximately 1.4 Tcfe of natural gas applicable to our working interest effective July 1, 2009. This estimate is based upon a drilling density of four to six wells per 640 acre spacing which would result in over 2,400 gross wells. Notwithstanding that we believe the Marcellus natural gas formation is present over the entire acreage block, our best estimate assumes only 55% of the land is developed. As development plans move forward, we believe a greater percentage of the land could be drilled and/or drilling densities increased thereby increasing the reserves and potentially the resource estimates over time. An independent third party reserve and contingent resource evaluation is expected to be completed at year end. Given the early stage of development, Enerplus believes the majority of the current value resides in the land and its future resource potential. While the transaction is not immediately accretive to production or reserves per unit and will result in increased 2009 finding, development and acquisition ("FD&A") costs for Enerplus at a corporate level, we expect the significant future growth potential to provide accretion as the leases are developed. We anticipate attractive long-term acquisition and development metrics on the acquired Marcellus interests. Based upon our best estimate of contingent resources and the acquisition costs and forecast capital spending including the vendor carry, we expect a projected FD&A cost of approximately US$1.60/Mcfe and recycle ratios of over 3x. See "Information Regarding Contingent Resource and Other Estimates" and "Information Regarding Disclosure in this News Release" at the end of this news release. DEVELOPMENT PLANS During the remainder of 2009, Enerplus plans to spend approximately US$27 million on the acquired interests to drill 15 gross wells including the vendor carry provisions of a Joint Development Agreement ("JDA") to be entered into upon closing of the acquisition. Since acquiring the land in 2007, Chief has drilled 10 vertical and 21 horizontal natural gas wells of which nine are currently producing. Chief currently has three drilling rigs contracted and we expect the number of rigs employed would be increased to 10 by 2012 under the current development plans. For the period from 2010 to 2014, Enerplus anticipates investing approximately US$800 million in development capital, including the vendor carry obligations. Enerplus expects the average well costs to be between US$3.5 million to US$4.0 million per horizontal well, with an average drilling time of 30 days or less. The development program will utilize horizontal drilling technology with multi-stage, slickwater fracs. We expect initial production rates of 3.5 MMcfe/day to 4.0 MMcfe/day gross and expected ultimate recovery of approximately 3.0 Bcfe to 3.5 Bcfe of natural gas gross per well. Within the context of current forward natural gas markets, we have assumed an operating netback of US$3.49/Mcfe for 2010, reflecting a Henry Hub price of US$5.77/Mcf, a combined heat content and location basis premium of US$0.49/Mcfe, royalties of US$1.20/Mcfe, operating and gathering costs of US$1.32/Mcfe, and proposed state severance taxes of US$0.25/Mcfe. OPERATOR Chief is an experienced shale gas producer. Their involvement in unconventional shale gas began in the Texas Barnett shale in 1997 where they drilled and completed over 400 wells and developed 1.1 Tcf of proved reserves before selling their Barnett interests in 2006 and 2008. Chief has been building their acreage position in the Marcellus play over the past few years by applying their considerable shale gas experience to this emerging shale gas play. Chief will continue to operate the properties in which Enerplus has acquired interests. Chief has added technical personnel to augment the seasoned team that was responsible for the success in the Barnett shale. Enerplus expects to have opportunities for meaningful information sharing and participation through the JDA and will have an agreement to place our technical staff within the Chief organization to build our knowledge and expertise of the Marcellus play. Enerplus has a proven track record of resource play development in the U.S. through our Sleeping Giant Bakken oil shale property in Montana. Since acquiring this asset in 2005, we have established and staffed our office in Denver, drilled over 100 successful horizontal wells and increased production and reserves substantially from this field. As part of the transaction, Enerplus will enter into a long-term agreement with Chief Gathering LLC, an affiliate of Chief Oil & Gas LLC, for the gathering, dehydration and compression of Enerplus' share of production. Chief Gathering LLC is one of the leaders in the building of gathering infrastructure to handle Marcellus production, using its expertise gained in the Barnett shale region of Texas. This agreement will provide Enerplus with cost and market access certainty and direct ties to the northeastern United States natural gas markets through Chief Gathering LLC's existing and in-progress interconnections with the major interstate pipelines. RBC Capital Markets and Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. acted as financial advisors to Enerplus on this transaction. Bank of America Merrill Lynch acted as the exclusive financial advisor to Chief and Tug Hill with respect to the transaction.