Merrill, OECD see Hungary as “world's fiscal leader"
posted on
Jul 02, 2009 01:56PM
Developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources
This bit of news made me laugh out loud :)
Merrill, OECD see Hungary as “world's fiscal leader"
Tuesday, 30, June 2009 03:23:00 PM
“Hungary may emerge from the current global recession in the strongest fiscal position among the world's major economies," Merrill Lynch claims in a new analyst report based on OECD statistics. According to the report, the country may boast a cyclically-adjusted fiscal surplus of 0.6% next year, making it the “world's fiscal leader".
Merrill analysts present what they claim “may turn out to be the chart of the year 2010," which indicates Hungary among the world's three national economies expected to post a positive cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance next year.
Among the world's major economies (considering OECD member states), Hungary may emerge from the current global recession in the strongest fiscal position among the world's major economies (considering OECD member states). In addition, the country may have cyclically-adjusted fiscal surplus in 2010 “assuming no pre-election back-pedalling from the fiscal tightening next year". The analysts also highlight an OECD estimate according to which Hungary may also boast the largest negative output gap at -11%.
The report reminds that while most governments have eased the fiscal strain in order to rev up the national economy, Hungary is forced to follow a tight fiscal policy. “Remember Hungary's twin deficit problem with fiscal gap near 10% of GDP in 2006?" the analysts conclude the brief report.
In an earlier article, Portfolio.hu called reader's attention to the fact that Hungary's fiscal gap per GDP will be among the smallest in the EU this year, in sharp contrast with its status as the EU's worst fiscal deficit problem in 2006 and 2007. It is not prudent self-restraint that will rocket Hungary to the top of the fiscal success chart; instead, it is the offshoot of remedial action on the government's gravely mistaken fiscal policy in the past few years (excessive overspending, skyrocketing debt). Hungary is forced to adopt corrective measures for three reasons: first, to meet requirements for the IMF rescue loan; second, to restore foreign investor's lost confidence in budget policy, and third, to mitigate Hungary's economic vulnerability that results from its high demand for forex financing.