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Message: Re: Sorry - it won't let me paste the text - Giant Hogweed

>On that note can anyone venture a guess at what the minimum flow rate should be for any single well, once the fraccing is complete and the initial flow has proven consistent, for that well to be considered economical??

The Macquarie report uses 10mmcf/day as the magic number:

"At IP rates of 10MMcf/day or higher, all cases meet our economic thresholds at our forecast long-term European natural gas price of US$11.66/Mcf."

I don't know what the exact price of natural gas is in Europe today, but it certainly is a lot higher than it is in North America. If you look at Dualex Exploration's Feb '09 investor presentation and / or documents on Sedar, they recently reported a netback (ie profit) of $9.00 per mcf for their Hungarian gas sales.

Of course the economic equation also includes the cost of the well. 10 mmcf/day is not much good if the well costs 20 or 30 million dollars to drill & complete. The Macquarie report assumes a well cost of $13 million.

The interesting thing here is that the author of the Macquarie report used to work for Orion, and back in 2006 he also wrote a report. Back then he commented that they need to have 10-15 mmcf/day and $12-13 million wells, but that was based on $6.00 gas.

"If gas prices exceed US$6.00/Mcf and the average well costs can be decreased, the economics of a shallow BCGA well would be very favourable."













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