>How long will the well take to drill? My guess is 50-60 days.That ought to mean people will be biting their nails with expectation in early April as word starts to leak out on initial flow rates.

Last April when we all read the JV agreement, we were told that the Initial Work Program was to start within 3 months. August seemed like such a long time to wait. August finally rolled around, and we learned that Exxon and MOL had started drilling in the donut, and not in our JV area. At that time I thought, as I assume most did, that the initial work program had been delayed. Not long after though, I made a few observations that strongly hinted that the IWP had in fact started. After all, the JV agreement did not say that the IWP would start when the drill started turning. The agreement said that the "ground operations" would start within 3 months.

What are 'ground operations" ? That could mean using a shovel to take a soil sample, or driving to a proposed well location to put up a sign :)

So what am I getting at? I think the Initial Work Program officially started in August.

There was also a hint of this in Novembers Management Discussion, if you compare it to the previous one.

Aug MD&A:

ExxonMobil will continue to perform its own evaluation of the subsurface and operational data prior to the commencement of the Initial Work Program.


Nov MD&A:

ExxonMobil will continue to perform its own evaluation of the subsurface and operational data as part of the Initial Work Program.

I found it very interesting at the time that they changed that sentence. Most of the MD&A was just a copy of the previous one.

We also got a Macquarie report on November 10th, which stated:

"ExxonMobil is in the first phase of the agreement, which requires it to test one or more of Falcon’s existing wellbores, or drill one or more new wells."

In my opinion, the Initial Work Program started right on schedule on August 11th.

That means they need to be finished by August 11, 2009. They then have 3 months to decide whether or not to move to phase 2, which puts us into November, the date that MOL also has marked on their timeline.