BMO Coverage News Flash
posted on
Dec 04, 2008 10:24AM
Developing large acreage positions of unconventional and conventional oil and gas resources
Thought this might be of interest.
2 Happy
Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd (FO-TSXV)
Stock Rating: Outperform(S) Stock Price: $0.21 Target Price: $1.35
|
December 1, 2008 Brief Research Note Oil & Gas - International Producers Christopher Brown, P.Eng. (403) 515-1574 Christopher.Brown@bmo.com Assoc: Arnold Wong
|
MOL Prepares for Crisis Year in 2009, Still Focused on Mako Trough Commercialization by 2011
|
|
Impact |
Positive
|
Details & Analysis |
As MOL (Hungarian oil and gas company) is partnered with Falcon throughthe ExxonMobil farm-in, its abilityto fund its share of exploration costs is very important for the Mako trough development. Despite MOL reducing itscapital budget for 2009, the CEO of MOL, Gyorgy Mosonyi, stated,....MOL.s upstream unconventional gas investment with ExxonMobil andCanada-based Falcon in Hungary.s Mako trough would likely continue. Youcan.t eat up your future because of short-term problems and panic.. Even with MOL.s reduced 2009 capital program, focus will remain onunconventional assets. Mosonyi went further to state that oil prices are unlikely to remain at this level, .in 2011-2012, when (he) hopes that these fields will start producing.. We believe this reinforces ExxonMobil.s andFalcon.s determination to commercialize the Mako trough.
|
This report was prepared by an Analyst employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is not registered as a research analyst under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 2 to 4. Brief Research Note
• Page 1
Falcon Oil & Gas Ltd. (FO)
Last Daily Data Point: November 28, 200812345671234567Quarterly Price1980198519901995200020052040608... Relative to S&P/TSX Comp.FO Relative to Oil/Gas/Consumable Fuels0.0000.0010.002012Revenue / Share Price / Revenue 1985199019952000200502-0.010.01EPS (4 Qtr Trailing) Price / Earnings FYEEPSP/EDPSYieldPayoutBVP/BROE(Dec.) $ $ $ % % % Current* NDnm 0.00 0.0nm NDnmnmAverage:Growth(%):5 Year:nmnmnm10 Year:nmnmnm* Current EPS is the 4 Quarter Trailing to Q2/2008.01234567012345671) OP(S)Target Price Share Price2006200720080200400600800100002004006008001000FO Relative to S&P/TSX Comp.FO Relative to Oil/Gas/Consumable Fuels-0.045-0.040-0.045-0.040 BMO 2008FY EPS ( Nov 08 = -0.04 ) IBES 2008FY Cons.EPS ( Nov 08 = -0.04 )200620072008-0.05-0.05
BMO 2009FY EPS ( Nov 08 = -0.02 ) IBES 2009FY Cons.EPS ( Nov 08 = -0.04 ) FO - Rating as of 19-Dec-05 = NRDateRating ChangeShare Price111-Sep-08NR toOP(S)$0.67
Brief Research Note
Analyst's Certification
I, Christopher Brown, P.Eng., hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
General Disclosure
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and BMO Nesbitt Burns Ltée./Ltd., collectively (.BMO NB.). BMO NB is not subject to U.S. rules with regard to the preparation of research reports and the independence of analysts. .BMO Capital Markets. is a trade name used by the BMO Investment Banking Group, which includes the wholesale arm of Bank of Montreal and its subsidiaries BMO NB in Canada, BMO Capital Markets Ltd. in the U.K. and BMO Capital Markets Corp. in the U.S. BMO Capital Markets Ltd. and BMO Capital Markets Corp. are affiliates of BMO NB. Bank of Montreal or its subsidiaries (.BMO Financial Group.) has lending arrangements with, or provide other remunerated services to, many issuers covered by BMO NB research. A significant lending relationship may exist between BMO Financial Group and certain of the issuers mentioned herein. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of BMO NB as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. BMO NB endeavours to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources that we believe are reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, BMO NB makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. Information may be available to BMO NB or its affiliates that is not reflected in this report. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. This material is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. The research analyst and/or associates who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the overall profitability of BMO NB and its affiliates, which includes the overall profitability of investment banking services. BMO NB, or its affiliates expect to receive or will seek compensation for investment banking services within the next 3 months from all issuers covered by BMO NB. BMO NB or its affiliates will buy from or sell to customers the securities of issuers mentioned in this report on a principal basis. BMO NB or its affiliates, officers, directors or employees may have a long or short position in the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. The reader should assume that BMO NB, BMO Capital Markets Ltd., BMO Capital Markets Corp., Bank of Montreal or their affiliates may have a conflict of interest and should not rely solely on this report in evaluating whether or not to buy or sell securities of issuers discussed herein.
Company Specific Disclosure
Disclosure 1: BMO NB has provided advice for a fee with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
Disclosure 3: BMO NB has provided investment banking services with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
Disclosure 7: BMO Capital Markets Corp. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months.
Disclosure 10: This issuer is a client (or was a client) of BMO NB, BMO Capital Markets Corp., BMO CM Ltd. or an affiliate within the past 12 months: Investment Banking Services.
Distribution of Ratings
Rating BMO BMO BMO Starmine
Category Rating Universe I.B. Clients* Universe**
Buy Outperform 44% 55% 52%
Hold Market Perform 48% 41% 42%
Sell Underperform 8% 4% 6%
* Reflects rating distribution of all companies where BMO Capital Markets has received compensation for Investment Banking
services.
** Reflects rating distribution of all North American equity research analysts.
Brief Research Note
Ratings Key
We use the following ratings system definitions:
OP = Outperform - Forecast to outperform the market;
Mkt = Market Perform - Forecast to perform roughly in line with the market;
Und = Underperform - Forecast to underperform the market;
(S) = speculative investment;
NR = No rating at this time;
R = Restricted . Dissemination of research is currently restricted.
Market performance is measured by a benchmark index such as the S&P/TSX Composite Index, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, as appropriate for each company. Prior to September 1, 2003, a fourth rating tier.Top Pick.was used to designate those stocks we felt would be the best performers relative to the market. Our six Top 15 lists which guide investors to our best ideas according to six different objectives (large, small, growth, value, income and quantitative) have replaced the Top Pick rating.
Dissemination of Research
Our research publications are available via our web site http://bmocapitalmarkets.com. Institutional clients may also receive our research via FIRST CALL Research Direct and Reuters. All of our research is made widely available at the same time to all BMO NB, BMO Capital Markets Ltd., BMO Capital Markets Corp. and BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Ltd. client groups entitled to our research. Please contact your investment advisor or institutional salesperson for more information.
Conflict Statement
A general description of how BMO Financial Group identifies and manages conflicts of interest is contained in our public facing policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research which is available at http://equityresearch.bmogc.net/conf...
Additional Matters
TO U.S. RESIDENTS: BMO Capital Markets Corp. and/or BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Ltd., affiliates of BMO NB, furnish this report to U.S. residents and accept responsibility for the contents herein, except to the extent that it refers to securities of Bank of Montreal. Any U.S. person wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so through BMO Capital Markets Corp. and/or BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Ltd.
TO U.K. RESIDENTS: In the UK this document is published by BMO Capital Markets Limited which is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. The contents hereof are intended solely for the use of, and may only be issued or passed on to, (I) persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the .Order.) or (II) high net worth entities falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together referred to as .relevant persons.). The contents hereof are not intended for the use of and may not be issued or passed on to, retail clients.
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. and BMO Nesbitt Burns Ltée/Ltd. are Members of CIPF. BMO Capital Markets Corp. and BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Ltd. are Members of SIPC.
"BMO Capital Markets" is a trade-mark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.
"BMO (M-Bar roundel symbol)" is a registered trade-mark of Bank of Montreal, used under licence.
Brief Research Note
Page 4