Evolving Gold Analysis Report
posted on
Nov 02, 2009 08:03PM
Evolving Gold is focused on exploring its significant discovery at Rattlesnake Hills, Wyoming, an alkalic gold system, similar to the Cripple Creek gold district in Colorado, and on gold properties adjacent to the Carlin district of Nevada.
I snagged this off of another board. Interesting read. I wonder what the experts on this board think of their summation. They seem to have a good grasp on Rattlesnake. Although the next 51 holes could multiply things in a positive way....
Investment Analysis for Intelligent Investors
Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
Analyst
Vincent Weber, B.Sc
Research Associate-Mining
Randall Hsu, BBA
Research Associate
October 23, 2009
??
2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Positive Drill Results at Rattlesnake Hills, Wyoming; Fair Value
Raised
Sector/Industry: Junior Exploration/Mining www.evolvinggold.com
Market Data (as of October 22, 2009)
Current Price C$1.04
Fair Value C$1.40 (?)
Rating* BUY
Risk* 5 (Highly Spec)
52 Week Range C$0.15 - C$1.94
Shares O/S 91.95 mm
Market Cap C$95.63 mm
Current Yield N/A
P/E (forward) N/A
P/B 2.87
YoY Return 511.8%
YoY TSXV 38.5%
*see back of report for rating and risk definitions
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
20,000,000
22-Oct-08 20-Feb-09 21-Jun-09 20-Oct-09
0.00
0.40
0.80
1.20
1.60
2.00
Investment Highlights
?? Evolving Gold Corp. (“Evolving Gold”, “EVG”, “the company”)
is a Vancouver, British Columbia based exploration company
focused on acquiring and developing gold projects in the western
United States.
?? 2009 drilling highlights include 67.1 meters grading 10.8 g/t Au,
including 12.2 meters grading 39.29 g/t Au in hole RSC-020 (a
high grade zone of mineralization located along the wall of the
diatreme).
??Drilling at Antelope basin intersected broad intersections of low
grade mineralization (163 meters at 1.25 g/t Au) with bulk
mineable potential.
?? In July 2009, the company received total proceeds of $4.89
million from the exercise of 7.33 million warrants at prices
ranging from $0.60 to $1.50 per share.
?? The company continues to be in a strong cash position with about
$19 million ($0.21 per share) in its treasury as of August 5, 2009.
Our discussions with management indicated that the company
will have about $13 million after all its current payables are paid.
??We have raised our valuation from $0.70 to $1.40 per share.
EVG has increased 131% since we initiated coverage in June
2009.
Key Financial Data (FYE - March 31)
(C $) 2008 2009 2010
3 mo
Cash + Inv in Marketable Securities 24,959,327 17,091,777 15,540,322
Working Capital 24,391,360 16,956,239 14,266,061
Mineral Assets 8,824,242 15,578,409 17,856,824
Total Assets 34,216,744 32,932,580 34,722,491
Net Profits (8,742,364) (4,808,513) (1,317,411)
EPS (0.21) (0.06) (0.02)
Evolving Gold is currently exploring it's 100% owned Rattlesnake Hills gold project in central Wyoming. Two
drill rigs are currently operating on the property to complete the final holes of the approximately 75 hole,
30,000 meter drill program. The company will have about $13 million after all its current payables are paid.
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 2
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Rattlesnake
Hills Update
Evolving Gold has released a series of positive results from the 2009 drill program at its
Rattlesnake Hills project in Wyoming. Check Tables 2-4 on the following page for selected
significant intersections as released by the company.
Key points to be observed in drill results:
??The high grade structural mineralization intersected in Hole RSC-020 - 67.1 meters at
10.8 gpt, including 12.2 meters at 39.29 gpt (true width has yet to be established) -
significantly increases the strike length of the high grade structural mineralization
encountered in holes RSC-003 and RSC-007. Hole 020 is approximately 210 meters
southeast of hole 003. The high grade zone appears to extend 240 meters horizontally.
??Management states that the high grade intersections in holes RSC-039, and RSC-046,
(see Table 2) indicate that the high grade structural mineralization can be found at
approximately 15 meters below surface to a depth of approximately 300 meters. Note:
Hole RSC-046 intersected the high grade contact approximately 180 meters vertically
below the contact in hole RSC-020.
??The high grade mineralization was encountered along the wall of the diatreme, and into
the surrounding Archean Schist, continuing to demonstrate this to be the most
favourable location for the high grade mineralization.
??Continued expansion of the low grade, potentially bulk mineable, mineralization at the
North Stock diatreme.
??A new style of mineralization was encountered over the last 30 or so meters of hole
RSC-027 including a 7.6 meter interval grading 3.75 g/t Au. This new mineralization,
located to the southeast of the North Stock (see Figure 1 below), appears to be porphyry
dyke related with stockwork style veining, and as management has stated, could
potentially be the connecting mineralization between the North Stock and Antelope
Basin. Ultimately, we feel hole RSC-027 represents another significant exploration
target at Rattlesnake Hills.
Table 1: Assay results of new mineralization encountered in Hole RSC-027
Drill Hole From (m) To (m) Interval* (m) Gold (gpt)
RSC-027 699.5 730 30.5 1.89
includes 711.7 726.9 15.2 3.11
includes 716.3 723.9 7.6 3.75
*Intervals are down hole, not true width. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
??Hole RSC-019 continues to prove near surface potentially bulk mineable mineralization
is also present at Antelope Basin (see Antelope Basin drill hole locations in Figure 2
below).
??Hole RSC-042, also drilled on Antelope basin, had a significant intersection of 32.0
meters grading 2.72 g/t Au including an interval of 3.1 meters grading 10.19 g/t Au.
??Hole RSC-028, drilled directly through the North Stock intrusion, showed weak gold
mineralization. This alkaline intrusion was initially interpreted to be post mineralization
and as expected, to be barren of gold. We believe the presence of gold mineralization,
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 3
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
while low grade, may positively influence the strip ratio, and thus, costs in a bulk
mining operation.
??According to management, core at depth is still showing quartz adularia alteration. This
is important as it indicates vertical continuation of hydrothermal alteration present in
other mineralized sections lending to the possibility of a high grade zone that can be
mined to depth.
??Results continue to demonstrate similarities to alkalic systems such as the Cripple Creek
deposit, particularly, high grade mineralization overprinting in a larger zone of lower
grade halo gold mineralization.
Table 2: Selected High Grade Intervals –North Stock
Drill Hole From (m) To (m)
Interval**
(m) Gold (gpt)
RSC-003* 149.4 295.7 146.3 2.92
RSC-007* 105.2 236.2 131.1 2.84
RSC-020 121.9 189 67.1 10.8
RSC-039 70.1 106.7 36.6 4.11
RSC-046 411.5 414.5 3.0 13.23
*Results previously discussed. **Intervals are down hole, not true width. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
Table 3: Selected Potential Bulk Tonnage Style Intervals –North Stock
Drill Hole From (m) To (m)
Interval**
(m) Gold (gpt)
RSC-003* 342.9 416.1 73.2 0.9
RSC-005 109.7 163.1 53.3 1.18
RSC-009 94.5 274.3 179.8 0.64
RSC-022 56.4 184.4 128 1.23
RSC-026 83.8 163.1 79.3 1.76
RSC-027 61 196.6 135.6 0.89
RSC-028 33.5 93 59.5 0.85
RSC-034 22.9 137.2 114.3 0.7
*Results previously discussed. **Intervals are down hole, not true width. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
Table 4: Selected Intervals –Antelope Basin
Drill Hole From (m) To (m) Interval* (m) Gold (gpt)
RSC-016 111.3 190.5 79.2 0.85
RSC-019 85.3 248.4 163.1 1.25
Including 167.6 190.5 22.9 4.18
RSC-042 147.8 224 76.2 1.7
Including 157 189 32 2.72
*Intervals are down hole, not true width. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 4
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Figure 1: North Stock Drill Locations. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 5
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Figure 2: Antelope Basin Drill Locations. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
Additional Comments
We feel the company’s ability to continue to expand zones of bulk mineable mineralization
is just as important as the vertical and lateral expansion of the high grade zone. As a
potential bulk mineable project with a complicated structure, we feel the company
receives more benefit from exploration focused on determining the full scope rather
than spending money on replicating market appeasing drill results.
Our reasoning for this is that as the project currently sits, neither the bulk mineable
targets, nor the high grade zones are standalone mines. We feel the low grade material
will determine the mining method used. Should a sufficient high grade resource be
delineated, it may be mined by a decline and bulk tonnage underground methods. We
believe the optimal situation however, would be the delineation of both low grade and
high grade zones that are mineable by a single open pit. Another very important factor
–perhaps the most important factor - will be the metallurgical characteristics of the
material which determine the viable processing method.
In discussion with management, we have learned that the higher grade intervals noted for
holes RSC-019, and RSC-042, are associated with a diorite intrusive body trending
southwest/northeast. While there is no current proof of continuity, we feel the porphyritic
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 6
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
dykes encountered could be related to the intrusive body and are potentially the link between
the two mineralized zones.
Current Status: The company's near term focus will include defining the high grade
mineralization at the North Stock with additional effort to better define the extent of the
large, bulk tonnage style halo gold mineralization. We also anticipate future work will seek
further geological information allowing the company to produce an accurate geological
model. This may include following the diorite and porphyry dykes discussed above. Four
drill rigs are currently operating in the Phase II program following a plan to increase total
meters drilled in 2009 by approximately 50%. There is currently no limit on the total meters
the company drills, but drilling must conclude by November 1 of this year.
Current Geological Cross Sections
Figures 3 and 4 are current cross sections depicting the company’s current interpretation of
the deposit. The location of cross sections can be viewed on the company’s website.
Figure 3: Cross Section A – A’ depicting the geology near Hole RSC-020 (Source: Evolving
Gold Corp.)
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 7
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Figure 4: Cross Section E – E’ depicting the geology near Hole RSC-027. Note the
increased presence of the porphyry system at depth. (Source Evolving Gold Corp.)
Things we will be watching for in future drill results:
??Can the company replicate these results?
??Continuity of the high grade zone in both lateral and vertical directions.
??Continued expansion of potentially bulk mineable zone at Antelope basin, and can it be
connected to the North Stock (this is a long term objective)?
Note on the South Stock: Holes drilled into the South Stock intersected predominantly low
grade mineralization. The company has stated that there are no plans for additional drilling
in the South Stock area. We feel the North Stock and Antelope basin represent substantial
potential for the near term, and believe the South Stock is best left for long term expansion
exploration.
Updated 43-101
The company is planning to release an updated 43-101 technical report on the property in Q2
of 2010, which we anticipate will include an estimate of inferred resources. The project will
also be advanced through the initiation of baseline environmental studies and metallurgical
studies.
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 8
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Carlin Property
Kiyuk Property
Acquisition and
Optioning
Financials
Resource estimate: Through drilling completed since our initiating report at both North
Stock and Antelope basin, the company has effectively doubled the area of known
mineralization. Some intersections have been lower grade than the 0.96 g/t used in our
previous estimate, while some intersections have been considerably higher (as noted in Table
2). From these results, in combination with the significant potential of a deposit that
remains open in nearly every dimension, we feel comfortable estimating that the
company now holds a resource somewhere between 1.5 million and 2.0 million ounces
(weighted average grade of 1.22 gpt). This has been increased from our previous
estimate of 0.95 million ounces (weighted average grade of 0.96 gpt).
On September 10, 2009, the company released assay results (see Table 5) from Hole CAR-
002 completed on their 100% owned Carlin property in Nevada. The hole was completed to
a final length of 1,519 meters. We feel that while results were not spectacular, this is the
first hole on the property, and it comes with several positives:
??Gold mineralization was intersected;
??The appropriate host rocks were intersected;
??There is evidence of hydrothermal activity;
??Sulphides of gold trace elements iron, arsenic and antimony were present.
Table 5: Assay Results, Hole CAR-002 Carlin Project, Nevada
Hole CAR-
002 From (m) To (m) Interval* (m)
Gold
(Au/tonne)
858.0 893.1 35.1 1.21
includes 890.0 891.5 1.5 11.90
914.4 925.1 10.7 1.01
includes 922.0 923.5 1.5 3.68
1420.4 1443.2 22.8 1.11
includes 1428.0 1438.7 10.7 1.79
*Intervals are down hole, not true width. (Source: Evolving Gold Corp.)
On August 5, 2009, the company announced the acquisition of the Kiyuk gold property in
southern Nunavut, Canada, for payment of $0.35 million and 250,000 shares of the company
over a five year period. A 2.0% NSR applies to the property and can be entirely purchased
for US$2.0 million for each percentage point of NSR.
The company subsequently announced that on September 10, 2009, it signed a letter of intent
with Ridgemont Capital Corp. (“Ridgemont” TSXV: RDG-P). The agreement states
Ridgemont may earn: 50% ownership in the property by spending $5 million on the project
prior to the third anniversary of the date of the definitive agreement; an additional 20%
ownership by spending an additional $5 million prior to the fifth anniversary of the date of
the definitive agreement.
At the end of Q1-2010 (quarter ended June 2009), the company had $15.54 million in cash
($14.94 million) and investments in marketable securities ($0.60 million). We estimate
EVG’s burn rate (cash spent on operating and investing activities) was $0.75 million per
month in Q1-2010. The following table shows the company’s cash and liquidity position at
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 9
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Valuation
month in Q1-2010. The following table shows the company’s cash and liquidity position at
the end of June 2009.
(C $) 2008 2009 2010 (3 mo)
Cash 24,959,327 17,091,777 15,540,322
Working Capital 24,391,360 16,956,239 14,266,061
Current Ratio 30.7 70.6 10.9
Monthly Burn Rate (675,308) (810,508) (751,485)
Cash From Financing Activities 32,987,401 1,779,246 943,674
Subsequent Financings: In July 2009, the company received total proceeds of $4.89 million
from the exercise of 7.33 million warrants at prices ranging from $0.60 to $1.50 per share.
Stock options and warrants: The company currently has about 11.25 million warrants
(exercise prices ranging from $1.25 to $1.50) and 7.81 million stock options (weighted
average exercise price of $0.37) outstanding.
Conclusion: The company continues to be in a strong cash position with about $19 million
($0.21 per share) in its treasury as of August 5, 2009. Our discussions with management
indicated that the company will have about $13 million after all its current invoices are paid.
We do not foresee any need for the company to seek external financings at least for the next
12 months.
Our revised valuation (average of DCF, real options and comparables valuation) on the
Rattlesnake property increased from $0.38 to $1.18 per share, as we revised our resource
estimate and long-term gold price forecast (since our initiating report, in June 2009, we have
revised our long-term gold price forecast from US$600 to US$750/oz), offset by higher
operating cost estimates. As a result of these changes, our DCF valuation increased from
$0.45 to $1.29 per share, real options valuation increased from $0.36 to $1.37 per share, and
comparables valuation increased from $0.34 to $0.89. A summary of our valuation models
follows:
Revised Previous
Resource (in tonnes) 44,615,642 30,936,781
Average Au Grade (g/t) 1.22 0.96
Contained Gold (in troy oz) 1,750,000 954,855
Gold Recovery 65% 65%
Mill Processing (tpy) 3,750,000 3,750,000
Mine Life (in years) 12 9
Gold Price (in US$/oz) $750 $600
Average Operating Costs ($/oz) $300 $250
Capital Costs ($) $50,000,000 $50,000,000
Discount Rate 11.5% 11.5%
Net Present Value $126,187,898 $39,025,943
No. of shares (diluted) 97,979,027 86,724,913
Value per share $1.29 $0.45
DCF Valuation Summary
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 10
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Estd.Value of Minerals if extracted today ($) $166,413,094
Annualized Standard Deviation of Mineral prices 19%
Capital Investment ($) $50,000,000
Estd. Mine Life (years) 12
Riskfree Rate 3.55%
Stock Price $166,413,094 T.Bond rate 3.55%
Strike Price $50,000,000 Variance 0.04
Expiration (in years) 12 Annualized div yield 0%
d1 = 2.803
N(d1) = 0.997 Value of Option ($) $133,857,951
d2 = 2.145 No of shares (Dil.) 97,979,027
N(d2) = 0.984 Value per share $1.37
Real Options Valuation
Output
Inputs relating to the underlying asset
EV /
Resources
1 Silverado Gold Mines Ltd. OTCBB: SLGLF $102.9
2 US Gold Corporation AMEX: UXG $96.9
3 J-Pacific Gold Inc. TSXV: JPN $59.5
4 NioGold Mining Corporation TSXV: NOX $55.5
5 Golden Band Resources Inc. TSXV: GBN $39.1
6 Harvest Gold Corp. TSXV: HVG $38.1
7 Garson Gold Corp. TSXV: GG $34.0
8 Sutter Gold Mining Inc TSXV: SGM $32.1
9 Rye Patch Gold Corp. TSXV: RPM $23.2
10 Midway Gold Corp. TSXV: MDW $16.2
Average EV / Resources $49.8
Fair Value of Rattlesnake Property $0.89
* Resources include all measured and indicated, and half of inferred and historical resources
Company SYM
The sensitivity of our DCF valuation to changes in long-term gold price forecasts and
discount rates is shown below.
$1.29 8% 11.5% 15%
$500 $0.59 $0.40 $0.27
$600 $1.04 $0.76 $0.55
$700 $1.49 $1.11 $0.84
$750 $1.71 $1.29 $0.98
$800 $1.93 $1.47 $1.12
$900 $2.38 $1.82 $1.41
$1,000 $2.83 $2.18 $1.69
Gold Price
(US$/oz)
Discount Rate
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 11
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA
PLEASE READ THE IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT
Conclusions &
Rating
Risks
Adding book values of the company’s other projects($0.09 per share), and current working
capital ($0.13 per share) to our revised valuation on the Rattlesnake project ($1.18 per
share), we arrived at a revised fair value of $1.41 per share.
Valuation Summary Valuation ($/Share)
Rattlesnake Property
DCF $1.29
Real Options $1.37
Comparables $0.89
Average $1.18
Book Value of Other Properties $0.09
Working Capital net Debt $0.13
Fair Value $1.41
Therefore, based on our revised valuation models and review of the company’s
progress since our initiating report, we reiterate our BUY rating, and raise our fair
value estimate from $0.70 to $1.40 per share.
The following risks, though not exhaustive, may cause our estimates to differ from actual
results:
??The value of the company is dependent on commodity prices.
??The company has not defined any NI 43-101 compliant resource estimates and does not
currently have any operating mines.
??The success of drilling, project development and resource expansion are important longterm
success factors for these early projects.
We rate the company’s shares a RISK 5 (Highly Speculative).
Evolving Gold Corp. (TSXV: EVG) –Update Page 12
?2009 Fundamental Research Corp. www.researchfrc.com Siddharth Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA