Take a deep breath.........
posted on
Jun 22, 2011 10:50AM
and think a little.
There are two camps posting here. The ones who favour a merger are few and most are silent. The large majorty want to see CMM continue on its own. At least under this proposed merger. If you remember the intervew on BNN in reply to one done with Max, he made it clear our commttee was not opposed to a merger, just this one. And it had everything to do with the terms. Now, if the terms were more along the lines of acceptable valuation, all this debate would be very different. The share price would also be very different, although we may never know for sure. Before this proposed merger some of the more creditable posters spoke of valuation around $1.20 to $1.50. If the market had given a valuation like this to a more real merger proposal, we would still have a few dissenters, but the mood would reflect one more like that of Ironman ( excuse my spelling ).
There was still one big flaw in this merger. It probably reveals the haste that this was put together, and how good planning and thinking was lacking. But the proponents of this deal made sure they benefitted. The one big flaw was the tax consequenses and capital gain that the merger would have triggered. Now, for sure none of these people mind paying a hefty capital gain. None of us should, if you think about it. But we would like to pay it on our terms. As this stood, some shares might have to be sold at a time not favourable to us to pay the taxman his due. I believe that one of these continuing delays is waiting for a change in the deal to reflect a better tax consequense. It may have been done, I have not heard. If accomplished, it would favour this deal going through. That does not mean anything would change for sure. I believe those who do not favour this deal would still oppose it and not much would change.
From my point of view I would still not favour it and I voted to withhold and would rather go it alone as CMM. This view is based on the current proposal. A more reasonable deal producing $1.20 value and they can have my shares. I still do not see enough opposition to this deal to convince me that it will not go through. Only the results of the vote will determine this. So being a realist, I expect it to pass. Once the uncertainty is gone, I expect the merged stock to be higher than the current 33 cents. How can we know for sure where it migt be? For sure, WTG is not worth what it trades for. Without liquitiy having a fair value is very dificult. So I'd expect a meged company to trade 60 to 80 cents. I have to stay at this point and hope for the best possible outcome. In my opinion, selling here is not an option for me.
The argument that Ironman is " selling " has to be considered. It is a very real possibility. No matter what my view is, I had to take this into account. Without a cash infusion for operations, we could be bankrupt and lose our company. Those who have proposed this merger would take us this way for sure if they could be assured that they could buy CMM on the cheap from our creditors. Obviously, since they have gone the route of the merger, they must have felt the risk of losing it all was too great. For this reason, I think Ironman is wrong in his conclusion. We will not lose our company if the proposed meger fails. It will be financed another way somehow or Max loses too. This concludes that we need more financing. It is not clear that we do. After all, it is reasonable to assume that those proposing this merger could be making it appear that way. Chalk all this conjecture down to my suspicious nature. I have no way of knowing if it is true............BUT........if it were me??????? Well, you figure out what I migh do to work out my deal.
One thing for sure, in five more days we should know a lot more about how this may work out. Good luck to all. We'll need some. Back in the 50's when I was playing ball, once in a while somebody would say, It's better to be lucky than good. This seems to me to be another one of those times.