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Message: Re: TA's

Nov 21, 2010 03:45AM
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Nov 21, 2010 11:46AM

Have a look at this chart...

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/interchart/interchart.asp?symb=ca%3Acmm&time=10

I would say there is a 90% certainty that we are going to see some buying from this level on for the following reasons:

1. Lower bollinger band in the weekly chart is being tested and this almost by definition leads to some buying that would take the share price upto the EMA-9 line which now crosses at about 45c.

2. RSI at 41. In a bullish trend the RSI should bottom out around 35-45 tp keep the uptrend intact.

3. PSAR shows a reversal though the reliability of this indicator is sometimes questionable.

Apart from that, I must say we have an incredibly nice fibonacci-pattern that indicates that we are simply experiencing a correction in a longer term uptrend. This is one of the most reliable indicators to me.

In an uptrend, you usually see a five-wave pattern up and a correctional three-wave pattern. Although I am not an expert in fibonacci-patterns, you can quite clearly see five waves from the bottom at $0.015. Wave 1 went upto $0.28, wave 2 stopped at $0.11, wave 3 at $0.445, wave 4 at $0.265 and wave 5 at $0.87.

Then there's supposed to be a corrective ABC-pattern to confirm the longer term uptrend. That pattern started at the high of $0.87, wave A went down to $0.41, wave B back upto $0.54 and wave C should then probably end atthe 61,8% fibonacci-level of $0.34 (0.618 x (0.87-0.015)=+/-0.34). This corresponds with below trendline drawing though it would probably mean that we would get into a bit more serious selling pressure on the short term.

Needless to mention: do your own DD. I am still very bullish on CMM but one has to understand that stocks ALWAYS move in patterns, just like everthing in life goes in patterns (read more about fibonacci to learn how the fibonacci sequence can be recognised almost everywhere in nature, it's really an eye opener when you first read about this). In short: we are approaching Spring, so have a little more patience.

PS: an experienced fibonacci-trader will probably spot that the error in my analysis as wave 4 overlaps wave 1 which is usually not allowed, but I've always had my questions about that rule... :-)

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