I don't know how Century can say they expect to average 1200 - 1400 tpd in 2010, but only peak at 2,000 tpd in 2011. If we start in March at 200 tpd and finish in December at 2,000 tpd then that is an average of 1,100 tpd for the March to December period - assuming a steady rate of increase. Over the whole year, it is less than 1,000 tpd average.


If we exit 2010 at a production rate of 2,000 tpd, that is equivalent to over 100,000 oz/yr from Lamaque alone. San Juan should be at an annual rate of 20,000 oz/yr by then as well giving an annual production rate of 120,000 oz/yr by year-end. I don't see how we can still be capitalizing costs for the full year if commercial production is defined as 60% of rated capacity.


At a production rate of 120,000 oz/yr and a cash cost of say $550/oz, we would be generating annual cash flows (at $1100 gold) of $66,000,000. A 10x multiple would equate to a share price of about $1.65. 9 months is not long to wait for a quadrupling of the current share price if Century "walks the talk". A key to shorter term price appreciation may be the Analysts' Tour in May. I don't think pouring the first gold bar will be all that significant. We poured lots of gold bars from the Sigma Pit. The key for institutions will be cash flow and earnings.

Now, keep in mind that they are adjusting the crusher right now. It previously had a capacity of 5000tpd and is being re-engineered for 3000tpd. I believe this is their ultimate goal for 2011. At 3000tpd, they would be producing in excess of 150k ounces (152k based on 3000tpd, at 4.6g/t head grade, 94% recovery) per year from Lamaque based on Carib's numbers. Again, potentially under promissing and over delivering. The other thing from 'Carib's post is cashflow prediction based on $550US cost per ounce production. I believe that this is conservative and that we will come in at under $500 per ounce at some point late this year or early next year when we ramp up production to 2000tpd. For the last 2 quarters, SJ production cost have been $470 and $486 per ounce. We have a corporate update coming up on Tuesday and then the 4th quarter financials sometime in mid April. AGM and Analyst site visit in mid and late May ensures that this little company will keep the momemtum on the share price over the next 2 months-as long as they keep delivering what they are promising us!

CMM is now my biggest holding and I am very comfortable with everything I see. From a TA standpoint, we have a cup with a handle forming. The handle can maybe go for another week or so but after that, we should see this stock explode once we cross the 45 cents mark.

Glorieux