I read it (thanks, you won't need to email it to me).

Seems they're predicating their analysis on continued expansion of Chinese industry (e.g. iron ore and metall. coal).

I think China has a scary overcapacity in steelmaking - they don't need all that steel themselves, especially not as their central bank tries to pop their bubble. (I've been converted to a "China bubble" believer - I sold out my China positions a month ago because I didn't want the downside risk.)

So I think steel will sell at a discount... meaning they're not going to want to pay more for their iron and coal.

China generally can't expand manufacturing more than it already has done, when you consider worldwide demand, the need for renminbi appreciation, and so on. In fact, if the past decade has seen China's progress into the industrial age, the next ten years should see their progress out of that and into the post-industrial era - they'll be expanding into knowledge industries (science, engineering) and dumping their worse manufacturing jobs onto places like Bangladesh and Viet Nam. So I'd say Chinese tech is a better play than Chinese manufacturing - though not til the present bubble situation fixes itself.

I also saw a warning somewhere last night that China is going to run into a West Europe-style demographic crash - too many old people, not enough kids. This is, of course, more of a 20-years-in-the-future scenario.

Platinum and Palladium, I think they're good, as you can't fight demographics, and more and more people will be buying cars. Now that the auto industry (in the west anyway) is in the toilet, the future can only get better for them. Lots of upside, little downside.

It's funny that BMO's Moly target is only $15 - the CBS board here and at the other site is all wacky over moly going back up in price, but I read somewhere that there are tons of Moly mines that were shuttered due to the recent price crash that are ready to come back onstream. Moly should stay low, then (meaning $15, not $40), and the LSE futures trading in Feb should help moderate spot prices I'd think.

Uranium sucks now, demand should go up, but what's happening with all the Uranium from the decommisioned nukes? I was under the impression that would take up a large part of uranium supply for nuclear power plants (which we will get more of in the world, because we'll need more electricity, especially in China and India). Anyway, very little downside, don't know the upside.