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Message: from Production05

from Production05

posted on Nov 25, 2009 12:58PM

If they were to one day move forward with work on Sigma II, it will depend on how aggressive they go at it and what shape it's in. it's already a pit so they wouldn't have to strip it from scratch. That's a big benefit. However, they would have to clean it up to make it mining ready. I'm not sure if it's currently dry pit or a fish bowl. If it has water then they will have to dewater it. The good part is that open pits are cheaper and faster to develop than u/g mines, for obvious reasons.

Depending on permit status, they may need to apply for an operating permit and perhaps other permits.

Time wise, it helps that no u/g infrastructure and no buildings and no processing operations will need to be built. It would be a straight forward o/p mining operation only. The trucks and other equipment can be stored at Lamaque every night, if it's not a 24/7 operation - there shouldn't be a need to build any storage facilities at Sigma II.

If the company were to head in that direction, and aggressively approach it (with having success along the way), I can see the possibility of a first gold pour within the timeframe of 1.0 - 1.5 years. Things would have to flow very smoothly though.


2) Rhump,

For ounce in the ground value, I typically use the following (I'm likely be a bit conservative with the inferred ounces - some companies only have inferred ounces yet they have huge market caps (i.e. until the last year or so Osisko only had Inferred ounces yet they had a $1 billion market cap - they now have Reserves and now their cap is $2 billion or more):

* $100 per Reserve oz
* $50 per M&I oz
* $10 per Inferred oz

Century's 43-101 ounces (Lamaque and San Juan):

*1.321M P&P Reserves
*1.300M Other M&I
*3.006 Inferred

Century's 43-101 oz in the ground value = $230.2M

Century's infrastructure value = $175M ($150M Lamaque and let's say $25M SJ)

Producer premium (50%, once Lamaque demonstrates profitable production delivery) = $202.6M

Century's premium for extremely high potential for future exploration (potentially of another 3M + ounces, including at least 2M bulk mining ounces, within the Lamaque Complex and strong blue sky potential outside of the Complex), 15% = $91.2M

Reasonable market cap for Century if it was treated on an even playing field with other companies in the space (once it demonstrates profitable production at Lamaque) = $700M

Cash, after financing = $55M

Debt, after financing = $50M (Prepaid gold sales + IQ)


Century's Enterprise Value (EV) = $695M (market cap - cash + debt)


Also, that EV goes up as the 1.3M Other M&I and the 3.005M Inferred ounces are moved into higher categories.

In addition, EV could increase further by recalculating 43-101 ounces from US$800 to US$900 gold price (with lowering of cutoff grade). This could increase 43-101 ounces by anywhere between 500,000 - 800,000 ounces.

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