Today's Market - Thursday
posted on
Mar 01, 2012 08:41AM
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On OTC - DROP showing some accumulation in OBV despite sp seeing some downside and flatness last couple of days. Overall still seeing support from from 8Day MA (0.34'ish), a day trader's technical, and 14DayMA. Next support is 200DayMA (0.33'ish), then Lower BB at about 30'ish would be last support. All other trends are now resistance - BBmid at 0.36'ish, 150DayMA at 0.38'ish, 34DayMA at 0.38'ish, BBUpper at 0.42'ish, 50DayMA (in downtrend) at 0.44'ish. Many of these support/resistance are very close because the Market is in consolidation trying to determine what is up with this play. The recent filing for the financing and the converts shows about a double in dilution of the outstanding shares. So, future news moving sp will likely be muted. Company seemingly still has a lot of potential, but the dilution is concerning. Not a deal breaker - yet, but something to be well aware of.
S&P500 heard from Uncle Ben yesterday, and the word was no QE3. May see more Market downside today. Economic news showing everything is getting better, well, maybe for business. The consumer is seeing nothing but higher and higher prices and expenses. Prices of everything going up, from food to gas. Stealth QE is still in pace, so really no worries, but Market did not like the comments. The Housing Market still treading water, but this is a given because housing is like a large ship that does not turn immediately. Stock Market should still see some upside until mid to late April, while a correction is due soon, although the Uncle Ben comments may have initiated it earlier than technicals predicted. The sell in May and go away crowd will do their usual thing because this risk-rally will have maybe just about run its course by then. Continuing tensions in middle east spiking oil. Greece will just not be settled. Some upcoming Euro meetings could move Markets. Mar15 sign-off on Greece credit, and Mar20 Greece bonds due. In one hand and taken away from the other. Greece will continue to return to bother the Market and by summer it could become serious. Greece gold will be collateral on this bail-out, and increased tension is a given. Be aware.
Commodities look decent as a play with the inflation aspect. Uncle Ben helped support the dollar, which saw gold/silver dump yesterday. These in synch movements by gold and the Market seems to show that gold is just another play. Corn looking good at $6'ish and broke resistance - may see $8-9 in the future. Middle East tensions putting a $15, or so, bonus on current oil price. Oil is about half of the commodities basket with support at about $105 for US crude. However the Brent price shows more of the middle east bonus. Lots of oilers out there that are good and could diversify the ol' portfolio.
Stay diversified and keep reasonable stops.