CJR,
I have no true DD on OXY. My understanding concerning OXY being strongly levered to the price of oil comes mainly from all of those TV talkin' heads who seem to all say the same about OXY. Having watched the OXY charts for a while, I have witnessed that OXY is indeed very levered to the price of oil.
Have not shorted or even played options. However, because of the big run up in just about everything since March, one might be able to pick just about any stock or commodity, including oil (or even gold, witness today), to short or put. Kinda like a lotto ticket. Hey, waitaminute...
Wow... ...Next year/two/5. Sheesh, I can hardly keep up with the present, or the recent past, let alone try to play on a move in the somewhat distant future. Timing does seem to be a very important decision. Hope you do well in whatever you end up doing on this.
Chicken Bonz say, "Save a Chicken, Eat More Red Meat."