Re Gold… “the precious metals are still in a long-term Bull phase, and will likely be in it for years. So the recent many weeks pullback was anticipated, and now the price in the 700’s is a better buy than when it was over 1000 in March. Another way of putting it; my earlier target for a low in $GOLD was around 760 and this week it hit 777.70. A few months ago, with the unrelenting push that kept the gold price above 950 for so many weeks, I started to doubt whether we would ever see 800 gold again. Now we have, but the Gold Bugs, while mad, did not die. They’ll be back. I will be watching to see if they continue to buy the dips here, setting up a new base for higher prices. I don’t think it will take long to find out.”

Re Silver… “Yes, the Silver Crazies are whipped, and that’s usually a good time to be a buyer…I don’t want to say more at this point. But when the US oil inventories come out on Wednesday, you might have already considered a straddle on key silver stocks…”

Re Platinum… “How badly off are the Platinum Bulls? The current price of 1388.20 against the 50d and 200d MA’s says all you need to know—unless you are a day-trader who is thinking it’s over-sold and, like $SILVER etc, ready for a rebound.”

Re Palladium… “With the exception of a couple days in the interim, the current price is all the way back to 1Q06. There is no technical indication whatsoever that the falling price will stop here either. But I think it will, any time soon. That’s not to say, the new $PALL Bull or precious metals Bull starts or re-starts here, but only that I think the plunge has been taken and now the cycle bottom work will take over.”

As you know, I go into a trade at (what I believe are) reversal points and with a time horizon in mind. Then I watch the market dynamics from that point to determine my subsequent action. For an anticipated bullish correction in a Bear market, I am looking for a short-term gain of +4% to +8% within a couple weeks. If emotions are running very high, that target could be say +6% to +12%.

Earlier this week, I gave you a list of 21 precious metal stocks, from large cap to micro-cap, some listed on NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX and TORONTO. After one day I said they were up +3.18% on the Monday, then +2.02% on the Tuesday. I opined that I suspected oil prices would come off and that the majority of these 21 stocks would pull back (in that event). But, now after 4 days, these 21 stocks are up an average +12.64%. If you were a skilled day trader, you were able to make your quarter in four days.

What happened here? Was it the Russia/Georgia situation that drove oil up and the $USD down? Was it the pressure on Fannie and Freddie with traders thinking the Fed/Treasury would have to come to the rescue, which would weaken the $USD? Was it the arrival in the Canadian oil sands of the world’s two wealthiest persons (Gates and Buffett) having a look-see? Was it the action of Venezuela in using the military to seize control of Cemex’s cement plants that caused traders to think that Chavez might cut off oil supplies to the US? Was the $USD moon shot in the past several weeks just due for a return to earth? Was it the closing of short positions in the commodity producers in order to take profits, following a particularly large sell-off? Was it the over-the-top US inflation data reported this week? Was the reversal of fortunes due to any one of these circumstances or perhaps all of them acting in concert?

I don’t know, and I’m guessing neither do you or any of the newsletter writers or Talking Heads you might be paying attention to. But I’m thinking too many people are wasting their time trying to figure it out, and not enough time studying the minute to minute action in what are very fast markets.

As much as I don’t like to say this; trading is a war. The best armed, the best prepared, and the hungriest people fighting this war happen to work for Humungous Bank & Broker. For most of you who think you are going to survive a fire-fight with HB&B, I recommend thinking twice. At the end of the quarter, your portfolios, your mutual funds and pensions will likely be a mess, and HB&B will be reporting humungous profits from their trading desks.