Venezuelan crude production has fallen drastically in the last two years and 60% of it goes to China or India, mostly to pay debts of the national government with Beijing , 20% goes to other countries among which are Cuba and the Antilles, which are sold at low cost and with easy payment through Petrocaribe agreements, the last 20% of the production goes to the United States, the only large buyer that pays punctually and completely.

The purchase of oil that goes to the United States is mostly made through Citgo , the subsidiary of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA ) in the northern country. Citgo is a company built to suit its owners, that is, Venezuela. It has the capacity to refine 1.8 million barrels per day of heavy and extra heavy crude oil (trait of crude oil), has 66 terminals, participation in oil pipelines that cross the US from south to north and 15,750 service stations. .

"PDVSA will lose 37 billion dollars in 2019"

With these dimensions, Citgo , or what is the same, Venezuela came to have the capacity to control the 10% of the largest gasoline market in the world . However, of the 1.8 million barrels per day that were exported to the US today, less than 500 thousand are shipped, the oil pipelines were removed, three refineries remain, the refining potential fell by half and the of 15 thousand service stations are less than 6 thousand. Even so, that country continues to be the main destination of our oil exports and, of course, of the few that still pay us in cash.

The official reasons for the reduction in the capabilities of Pdvsa's American subsidiary are unknown beyond some mass political discourse charged leftist and " anti-imperialist " ideology . The reasons why 100% of Citgo's shares were taxed are also unknown : 51.1% to guarantee the payment of the PDVSA bonds whose maturity was renegotiated for the year 2020 and 49.9% in guarantee for a loan of 1,500 million dollars by the Russian company Rosneft . Some specialists warned at the time that PDVSA was deliberately insolent.

The government of President Hugo Chávez granted him a concession in 2002 to the Canadian mining company Crystallex to later nationalize it and return it to another transnational company.

Crystallex begins a long legal path against the Venezuelan state that led to the recent decision of a judge that part of that being Citgo a 100% subsidiary of PDV Holding  which in turn belongs to the Republic of Venezuela, it can be concluded that Citgo is a " Alter ego " of the Republic and consequently, despite the objections of Caracas, Crystallex can proceed to seize 1,400 million dollars.

ConocoPhillips started receiving payments from PDVSA

If the Federal Court of the United States ratifies the decision of the Judge of Delaware, the case "will acquire unimaginable dimensions", according to the former director of the Venezuelan state oil company José Toro Hardy, because it will set a precedent for more than 20 arbitrations international creditors that will seek to collect the delinquent debts of both the Republic and PDVSA.

"PDVSA would be mortally wounded. We would have lost our main access to the market. It would be the result of the actions of some dogmatic upstarts who believed that with Marx's Capital under their arms they could do and undo as they pleased with the fate of Venezuela. "

Just a few days ago, the late payment of interest for the 2020 bonds that commit Citgo Holding Inc was made, the payment does not guarantee that the Venezuelan state oil company, PDVSA, can maintain its subsidiary but if it gains time, although for some specialists this it is already a lost cause and that it would touch to renounce the company of the golden eggs. One of them is Francisco Rodríguez, economist and director of the Torino Capital brokerage.

"It is difficult to visualize a scenario in which Venezuela sooner or later loses Citgo in front of one of its delinquent creditors."

And if Venezuela loses Citgo, what market will that ultra-heavy oil go to? Who will pay for it as the Americans pay?

This, although it is a very macro issue, have very important connotations in the micro. Arturo Uslar Pietri immortalized the phrase " sow oil ", something that was not done and now it will not be done either, because in the absence of a buyer we will not have to eat it .