Gaddafi about to quit

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi is ill and ready to hand over power to Justice Minister Mohammed al-Qamoodi. A statement to that effect came from an anonymous source in that country’s armed forces. Gaddafi has also agreed to move to Venezuela together with his family.

Among conditions set forth by the Colonel is an immediate ceasefire and end to the NATO operation. The Libyan president has apparently begun packing his belongings, since, according to a number of Arab media, two airbuses landed at the Tripoli airport on Wednesday - one carrying the government delegation and another one empty. The latter will presumably take Gaddafi, his family and closest associates to Venezuela.

Details of the Libyan leader’s escape from his country were allegedly discussed the day before by Gaddafi’s spokespeople and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez’s envoy on the Tunisian Djerba Island. Chavez himself, by the way, vows to have overcome cancer after undergoing treatment on Cuba and feels great now. At the same time, it turned out that Muammar Gaddafi’s chief aide Bashir Saleh was sent to meet with British and French diplomats, in order to search for a way “to get Gaddafi and his family out of Libya.”

Libya’s domestic situation started developing at a higher pace following the beginning of talks between Tripoli and Benghazi that have been under way since Sunday, if we believe Western media reports. Deciding upon the country’s fate are allegedly two emissaries sent by each of the sides - Gaddafi and the Transitional National Council (TNC) recognized as Libya’s one and only legitimate government by over 20 countries. At the same time, none of the parties have officially confirmed the fact that negotiations are under way, except for Abdel Ilah Al-Khatib, the special United Nations envoy to Libya, who claimed to have met with representatives of both sides.

In the meantime, expert at the Oriental Studies Institute and Russia’s former ambassador to Libya and Tunisia Alexei Podtserob warns that Gaddafi’s immigration may turn into a new headache when solving the Libyan problem:

"Gaddafi’s resignation would imply a capitulation and supervision by Cyrenaica natives over Tripolitania, with a further “vae victis” development. In its recent letter to the UN Secretary General, Human Rights Watch stated that the so-called freedom fighters were carrying out mass robberies and acts of violence against local dwellers, and killing émigrés. On August 17th, a similar acknowledgement appeared in The New York Times, a newspaper that can hardly be called loyal to Gaddafi," Alexei Podtserob said.

Urging to imagine the worst case scenario of what is going to happen with Gaddafi followers after the opposition occupies Tripoli, the Russian expert stressed:

"The most rational way out of the crisis is not Gaddafi’s departure but political negotiations, a ceasefire and end to NATO bombings. Indeed, the talks may result in the Colonel’s stepping down on certain conditions but opposition demands concerning his capitulation may bring the entire situation to a deadlock," Alexei Podtserob concluded.

The West is perfectly aware of this. Britain’s Sky News channel said NATO fears a “catastrophic success” in Libya - the appearance of political vacuum in case of Gaddafi government’s early collapse. Some Western diplomats even call prospects for the victory of the Libyan opposition the “most unfavorable scenario”. They point to the lack of organizational structure in the Transitional National Council, which may facilitate the growth of Islamist influence. The same fears were voiced by former Libyan Islamic fundamentalist and now expert at the British Quilliam Foundation analyst center Noman Benotman, interviewed by the London-based Times newspaper. The TNC has a split management system, which makes people very disappointed, he said.