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Message: Re: ANOTHER JIM SINCLAIR MESSAGE
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Jul 03, 2011 11:38AM
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Jul 03, 2011 12:11PM
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Jul 07, 2011 11:28PM
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Jul 08, 2011 01:12AM
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Jul 08, 2011 04:32AM
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ctw
Jul 10, 2011 12:46AM

Not so sure it is that simple. Sunday/weekend is good for OT.

Chinese immigrants could never supply enough of the necessary bucks quickly enough to fix the debt problems in the US. Any real fix will take a generation, if not more.

Big inflation has not yet hit US consumers. But it will. The printing presses at the US Treasury have all but guaranteed it. Significant grain/food price increases, if not shortages, is still in the cards because of the strange weather and flooding in farmlands of the US earlier this year. Riots? Not yet. Folks are still living on their borrowed assets.

The problem with debt/borrowing does not even begin with the US Govt, but extends way into the population where the "me generation" had to have it all now. This meant borrowing. Extensively. Typically, the biggest asset is real estate and HELOCs supplied a convenient means to living the high life. The US housing mess was caused by greed of not just the banks, but also individual borrowers thinking they could be junior flippers. HELOCs and "Liar Loans" allowed people to live the high life now, while kicking the can down the road. Eventually that road leads to a dead end that many are now crashing in to. We continue to see the fallout of the Alt-A and option ARM loans, and will continue to do so for at least another couple of years.

The US Govt is getting close to hitting the same dead-end just like consumers have been experiencing. This is the very reason for the current bickering over the US budget and raising the debt ceiling limit. August 2, the US "runs out of money" to pay debt. Well, not exactly. Just, at that point (without raising the debt ceiling) the US must then choose to either pay Medicare and Social Security, or other bills. If the choice is to hold back on Medicare and Social Security, it is guaranteed there will be some news headlines made and possibly people hitting the streets. Doubtful this will happen, and predict the debt ceiling will be raised at the eleventh hour after extensive saber rattling. Whatever is decided will not fix the problem immediately, and as stated earlier, because a real fix will likely take a generation or more.

The Market is ignoring a lot of current events. Middle east problems, Asia problems, Europe problems, and on and on. Statistical reports that the Market seems to get its fuel from, are misleading - at best. Market moves up Thursday on "better-than-expected (in reality horrible) Jobless Claims numbers, then "surprised" Friday about the bad Jobs Numbers. Puhleeze.

China bought a whole lotta grain futures over the 4th of July Weekend while grain was still on the cheap. Nice try, but may not be enough to last through the end of the year. As much talk as there is about China expansion and being/becoming the world's biggest economy, the growing pains may derail the China Locomotive. Or, at the very least, delay their progress significantly.

Dollar Standard? Yuan Standard? Gold Standard? Chicken Standard?

Chick Standard? (Sorry CJR, trying to be more PC, at which I still fail)

Well, ruling out the currencies and gold, Chickens are more portable.

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