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Message: Venezuela: will Hugo Chavez be the next one overthrown after Muammar Kaddafi?

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Venezuela: will Hugo Chavez be the next one overthrown after Muammar Kaddafi?

07 April 07:58 AM


In connection with the military actions in Libya and the chain of revolutions seen in the Arab World, which seems to reach Syria and Jordan, the famous revolutionist and President of Venezuela Hugo Chavez has recently become more active. He has already made some big statements, which could have become sensational if they had been made by another high-ranking politician.

Hugo Chavez claims that:

1. The US is planning to intrude into Syria (repeating the Libyan scenario)
2. Washington is after his nation's oil and is going to invade Venezuela and overthrow Hugo Chavez
3. The US authorities are trying to talk Columbia into launching a war against Venezuela.
What can be said about each of these statements?
The US vs Syria. It is reported that currently there are mass protests taking place in Syria and aimed against the incumbent president Bashar Asad:
· Of course the unrest is not as serious as it was in Egypt or Tunis. However it can be compared to the Libyan protests during the initial period of the revolution.
· The main thing is that the Syrian army used weapons against the protesters. There are many casualties and deaths.
· According to Hugo Chavez, the next step will be the intervention of the international coalition headed by the US, which is going to bomb the nation “for the sake of its salvation”.
· The Venezuelan president told the reporters that he had talked to his Syrian colleague and that they completely shared the same opinion on the matter.
According to the Association of Traders and Investors from Latin America under Masterforex-V Academy, there are no reasons to make such suppositions:
· Firstly, the Syrian opposition hasn’t achieved anything significant so far. The protests well may come to nothing.
· Secondly, the Syrian protesters don’t have weapons (as opposed to the Libyan rebels) and they do not control any territories. The Western powers just won’t have the reasons to interfere.
· Thirdly, Syria possesses fairly advanced anti-missile and defense systems bought in Russia. Asad has managed to modernize the army, unlike Kaddafi.
· And finally, as opposed to Libya, Syria has almost no oilfields.
The only reason for starting a military campaign against Syria is to defeat Iran’s major ally in the area. However, it is not enough for Washington to invade Syria.
The US vs Venezuela. Hugo Chavez said the US authorities had put him and the odious Muammar Kaddafi on the same list of dictators, thus making Venezuela the next target of military intervention.
According to him there are many other countries of Latin America that are under threat but Venezuela is number 1 on the list.
Some countries of The Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic etc) may also fall prey to possible aggression.
Masterforex-V Academy experts assume that it is just another creepy story repeated by Hugo Chavez for many years.
· No military campaigns in the Western hemisphere can be beneficial for the US as they may seriously affect the US Dollar.
· Moreover, such a military campaign may frighten off foreign investors.
· Of course the Venezuelan oil presents a lot of interest to the US. However they are not going to act this way. The White House already made up a specific scenario for Latin America in the 19th century, including military hunta, criminal clans and ultra-rightists. In the last resort they can stir up the countries against each other.
Columbia vs Venezuela. Hugo Chavez says that Columbia has been waging an inforwar against his country for a long time.
· According to him, Columbia may make up some kind of a “false camp” of Columbian extremists on the Venezuelan territory and then may blame Karakas for giving shelter to terrorists.
· In this case the 2 countries will unleash a full war. Then the US will support Columbia.
Masterforex-V Academy experts say that this scenario is more realistic. However it is still almost unreal. Various partisans, contrabandists, drug dealers and others do really cross the borders in Latin America as the wish. Very often the secret services of different countries neglect the sovereignty of other countries in order to destroy the enemy. However such frontier incidents haven’t grown into anything serious for a long time.
What goals does Hugo Chavez pursue when saying such things?
1. He is constantly trying to distract his people from current economic problems by giving them the image of an enemy.
2. Venezuela cannot present any serious danger to the world powers, such as the US, as its economy is entirely dependent on the global capital market.
3. Hugo Chavez is constantly increasing the sovereign debt. Most loans are borrowed from his ideological enemies.
4. Despite the fact that Chavez strives to diversify the crude oil export, the biggest share of the Venezuelan oil is bought by the US refineries.
5. By saying such things Hugo Chavez is trying to find new allies and lenders.
For example, in 2010 Venezuela received a $2.2B loan from Russia and borrowed $20B from China. The Venezuelan sovereign debt is considered to be one of the riskiest in the world.
Consequently, Chavez is not going to wage wars with any country. Yet nobody is going to attack him and his country.
Masterforex-V Academy and Market Leader offer all comers to participate in a survey at the forum for traders and investors by answering the following question:
Will Hugo Chavez be the next one after Kaddafi?
· Yes, he will. Venezuela is rich in crude oil.
· No, he will stay the President of Venezuela.

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