Hey Stu, how's things?
My early take on the AGM is that Fung was cautious, but telegraphed clearly the fact that China has full access and cooperation with Hugo. All of the time that Fung spent discussing CRRC and it's parent CREC should make clear that this deal is done. China Railway will deliver the permit.
I now have no doubt that the mine will be built (likely at a much larger scale than 20k tpd -- according to Fung, enough to mine it out in 20 years or less, so at least 1 million ounces a year). I also have no doubt that CRRC will get a foreign exchange permit that will avoid the gold sale price issue that is killing Rusoro.
The only significant issue that I can't get a real good handle on yet is how many shares outstanding we will have when we start producing. I think that the final agreement, which is in the works and should be done in the next couple of months, will help clarify that issue.
I'm expecting the share price to pass a dollar after the permit and deal are finalized, and I have no idea how high it will go this year. I do think that the cash flow will be much higher than some of the pessimists guestimate currently, but the per share numbers are still a question.
My current bottom line is that the presnt course is the best possible outcome, far better than sitting and doing nothing or going to arbitration and waiting a number of years.
There are a number of possible unexpected upside events, such as the reserve at LC being much higher than the current ~ 20+ million ounces, improved gold prices, and other possible projects as a JV. While these all may seem a reach, the Chinese have the juice to make a lot happen. My studies of CRRC indicate that their current $7.5 billion railroad contract will ultimately exceed $100 billion by 2030; no reason that the gold mining venture cannot also be much larger than the current agreement.
"We are funded" for a "sub 20 year mine" with over 20 million ounces. That sounds pretty good to me. When the latest financing gets absorbed we should start moving.
Good luck to us all.