Roberto Giusti CARACAS, martes 02 de marzo, 2010

Never before had such an adverse situation faced six months of an election
It seems so, because never before had attended in the same space and time, a number of negative factors that can cause a negative perception of reality located, according to Luis Vicente Leon (Datanálisis) in more than 60%.

That perception does not always agree with reality and this is how, during the government of Jaime Lusinchi, we were able to convey a mistaken sense of wellbeing, unveiled after the arrival of Carlos Andrés Pérez to power.

With the latter the opposite occurred, and if economic growth reached a figure exceeding 9%, was established in the country an artificial atmosphere of crisis that ultimately led to his ouster from office.

With Chavez, does not happen either previous situations where the variable of a negative perceptual matches a critical fact which is reflected in the falling price of oil, the consequences of devaluation (high cost of living, shortages , drop in consumption), insecurity, violence and crisis services (electricity, water), corruption and complicity with groups like the FARC and ETA.

Thus, after four or five good years during which the populist politics and patronage allowed increased consumption, directly subsidizing hundreds of thousands of families and reduce poverty levels, we have entered a recession that has turned the tables . The result is a growing dissatisfaction expressed in the negative perception with which the Government looks powerless when trying to modify it.

But worse for Chavez is that this variable has a direct impact on his popularity, and now declining and below 50%, which puts him at a disadvantage before the parliamentary elections next September. Does that mean you are assured of defeat? Not really. The loss of Chavez seems more the product of their mistakes and work not of the merits of oppositional politics and that, in substance, not too bad, because it reveals how deeply stalled disenchantment of the population to a figure once had, at one point, 92% popular support.

That disenchantment has not triggered a mass migration toward the opposition camp (the nis or bigger by the day) and thus the concrete practice of the agreements unit is the only way to secure a victory going to turn negative perceptions before a Chavez prematurely aged, in enthusiasm for an option could emerge as an alternative to power armored, viable, sensible and well structured. Otherwise, we hoping history will repeat.
rgiusti@eluniversal.com