They affirm that uncertainty and inflation move away to investors

Noel Maurer notices that Venezuela is vulnerable before the Ciadi by the conducted expropriations (File)

The climate of businesses in Venezuela is highly complicated and erratic as far as the projections to make decisions from investment, in agreement with the analysis of Noel Maurer, professor associated of the School of Businesses of Harvard.

Maurer, invited by the IESA to the forum Strategies in the days of turbulences: to prevail in the Venezuelan uncertainty explains that the Venezuelan Government has acted of erratic form in the handling of some policies of State as related to the taking of assets and catalogued means of production of “strategic value” like the cementeras companies.

It indicates that although Venezuela is not the first country where the companies must face an unpredictable atmosphere, the uncertainty climate is negative to call the investments.

“The government of president Chávez has been most difficult to understand. There are presidents in Latin America, like Evo Morales in Bolivia or Rafael Strap in Ecuador, that policies do that perhaps are not the best ones for their countries but their strategies can be understood. But in Venezuela the behavior is erratic and that has been seen in the nationalizations”, indicates Maurer.

It assures that in the processes of unavoidable acquisition of companies “first, although the companies did not want to sell, were negotiations. Soon cases like Cantv happened, where Government and company negotiated, but even so the Government made some type of political noise although amiably. But later one went to Cemex, where they nationalized the company saying that he did not produce for the domestic market when only exported 4% of the production. It is difficult to understand the reasons”.

He adds that, in resistance, “to Lafarge and Holcim one was pleased to them basically what they asked, but not thus with Cemex. And the Government must know that with 12 billions of dollars of assets in the outside the Venezuelan State is super vulnerable to an action of the Ciadi”.

However, the aggressive speech before the national private sector affects the possibility of local investment.

Maurer affirms that “the foreign companies are not so affected (before expropriation threats) because they know that they can defend his rights of property, and for that reason is interest in Faja of the Orinoco. They know that there was no a confiscation there and that for example Exxon Mobil is fighting (in courts) for economic reasons but not to maintain its reputation. The foreign oil companies know that in spite of all the political noise they are having the same gross entrance by petroleum barrel that under contracts of operation in 1998”.

Macroeconomic alarm
Factors as negative interest rates and the monetary policy also affect the investment possibilities. Noel Maurer indicates that the macroeconomic indicators in Venezuela “have warning lights for a long time ignited by negative interest rates, controls in activity of the banks, inflation high level”.

In addition, it notices that “reserves in the power of the Central bank are taken, that are not such because they were exchanged as endorsement of the bolivars and now an amount of bolivars is printed that impel the inflationary height”.

Also, it observes that “it is difficult to understand how the Government has not devaluated. The Venezuelan companies do not have loans in dollars that can affect the inflation, that is the normal reason for which the governments are obstinate to devaluate”.

etovar@eluniversal.com