the curse of El Dorado, imo, is that the amount of gold is so great that it blinds all who are involved with it to the point that they will never find it.

bi-lateral treaties- the icsid (and other) arbitration cases currently pending against venezuela are staggering to the point that venezuela will never be able to repay the amounts that will probably be awarded, unless, at some point, the world bank/IMF was to loan venezuela the money to repay the awards. that means that western companies would be allowed back into venezuela. in a hugo regime i dont see this happening.

the nuclear option for hugo is to break off all ties and trade to the world bank and western countries; otherwise, his assets will be confiscated all over the world. the problem with this is hugo will be dealing with other BA countries that only have arms to offer in return for payment.

the russians- if the russians were awarded LC what happens 2 years down the road and hugo is replaced by a more "moderate" el presidente? the russians now have a "bi-lateral" treaty with ven also, but i dont see where it has any teeth, what can they do?.

questions-

do russia/ven both fall under existing bi-lateral treaties (i.e. canada/barbados)? if they do, why form thier own treaty unless they were both planning an option to break off from those relationships at some point.

my head's starting to hurt.