National accounts show deficits in trade balance
Sunday, 01 March 2009
Maria Ramirez Cabello
mramirez@correodelcaroni.comEsta email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it



The further fall in crude oil deficit will continue and deepen a higher level of spending on imports coupled with a decline in revenues because of declining oil exports led to a current account deficit of the balance of payments of the nation During the fourth quarter of 2008.

The Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) reported that the deficit observed in the current account due to a decrease of 45.9% in the value of global exports and a 4.3% growth in imports, resulting in an deficit of 3 thousand 724 million dollars in the trade balance that reflects the movement of imports and exports of goods from one country to the outside.

In absolute terms, imports of goods during the fourth quarter of 2008 were $ 14.328 million, "emphasizing machinery and equipment, pharmaceuticals and medicinal chemicals, oils and grains, beef cattle, dairy, textiles, phones Mobile, among others, "according to the BCV.

While imports rose, the oil and non-oil exports fell significantly affect the national accounts.

Exports fell
The issuing authority specifies in its report that oil exports fell by 47.2%, a result of the decline in the average price of the Venezuelan basket, due to falling global demand.

Similarly, non-oil foreign sales fell by 30.4% over the fourth quarter of last year, "due to lower billings in our main export products in the fields of metals, chemicals and chemical products and vehicles automotive, "said the BCV.

This scenario may become complicated during the first quarter of 2009, considering that oil prices are kept low, while the average amount of the Venezuelan oil basket U.S. $ 36.09 per barrel, a decline in relation to the 2008 when it was in U.S. $ 86.81.

Saving accounts
In general, however, favorable oil prices in the first half of 2008 helped offset the fall in the second half, which also led to positive results for the balance of the current account in 2008 - introduced an increase of 96.2% over 2007.

Although oil revenues increased in 2008, non-oil foreign sales stood at U.S. $ 6.099 million, equivalent to a decrease of 7.7% over the previous year, mainly due to lower billings our main export products in the fields of metals and motor vehicles, "said the BCV.

The entity issuing said also that imports of goods increased by 5.8% in 2008, "in a dynamic context of economic activity with high requirements for intermediate inputs and final goods, which led to greater demand for products abroad, especially food, beverages, agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, telecommunications equipment, apparel and parts and electrical parts, among others. "

Vs swap official
For this year, the downward trend of oil will cause imports through the swap market to gain ground supported by the official exchange rate, which would severely impact on inflation, according to the firm Ecoanalítica in one of its most recent reports .

Estimates of the firm, imports will be located this year at U.S. $ 42,500 million, representing a decrease of 10.7% over the 2008 level, when it settled at $ 47.601 million according to preliminary figures from the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV).

The compensation for this decline, through official channels, the fall in swap market.

Requires signature "cadivi liquidated in 2008 to U.S. $ 38.667 million imports (including the agreement Aladi), additionally granted $ 9.363 million for other items, where reglón credit cards accounted for 51.1%. According to our calculations, imports financed by the swap market reached U.S. $ 8.934 million, ie 18.8% of total imports. "

By 2009, the proportions are different. Ecoanalítica believes that "this year the swap market is going to finance 40% of total imports, which will have negative effects" on inflation and the cost structure of firms, besides constituting a brake on consumption growth by the effects on prices. "

International Investment

In the financial account originated an annual deficit, attributed to net flows associated with the accounts of other investment and direct investment.

The net international investment position of the country rose 58% going from U.S. $ 86.851 million in 2007 to $ 137. 331 million at the close of 2008, as a result of the increase in total external assets of the country and 23% reduction in external liabilities by 11%.

The BCV emphasizes that "if the public sector, there were increases in all categories of investment: direct, portfolio and other investment reserves, which are explained mainly by higher oil trade credits with affiliates and unaffiliated customers, holding senior debt and external tanks and a higher level of international reserves. "

For its part, the increase in assets from the private sector highlighted the largest external positions in deposits, given the supply of foreign exchange through secondary market transactions with debt instruments traded in foreign currency.

The body stressed that issuing debt balance was reduced in both its public component (U.S. $ 29,727 million) and private (U.S. $ 47,837 million).