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Message: VZ oil by Raul Gallegos

Re: VZ oil by Raul Gallegos - RE002: Huge spread OIL futures contracts.

in response to by
posted on Dec 19, 2008 02:42PM

RE002: I thought you may be interested in reading this commentary on the huge spread betweent the January and February Oil contracts. Going to get interesting as it appears nobody wants to take delivery suggesting an oversupply problem.

"Crude oil futures showed a serious oversupply situation today. The January contract settled down 2.35 to 33.87 while the February contract gained 0.69 to 42.36. January hit a bear market low of 32.40 and February hit a low of 40.90 Based on the closing prices, there is now a 8.49 spread between the two contracts. The futures market is telling us that there is an obvious glut of oil and nobody wants to take delivery. This is simply unbelievable. Oil a month from now costs 25% more than oil today.

With the future price of oil so much higher than the current price, the storage business is booming. You can buy crude today at 33.87, store it, and sell the January 2010 futures contract for 55.97, locking in a 22.10 profit or 65% minus storage costs and cost of capital. In just the past week, inventory levels at Cushing rose by about 20%, or 4.7 million barrels. At least one company, Enbridge, says that their 15.5 million barrel storage capacity at Cushing is nearly full. "

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