The following is submitted with no pleasure and with the hope that someone will annihilate my reasoning and submit a better more optimistic analysis:
What we understand
- Crystallex has been a stellar law abiding citizen of Venezuela. They have done everything that has been required of them. If the VZ government were to in any way violate their agreements with KRY our company would have a major cause of action against them.
- Hugo Chavez lost his attempt last year through an election to change the VZ constitution and extend his position as president. It is becoming clear that his election two years from now is looking less likely. Since the election last year Hugo has embraced Russia.
- Russoro has purchased gold mines in VZ and wants to buy more. They pursue a company that seems to be better financed.
- Gold Reserve has a pile of cash that will sustain them for quite some time. KRY might last through the summer with their current funding. KRY has pulled rabbits (financing) out of hats before.
What we might conclude
- If Hugo thinks he is about to loose power he may be looking for ways to continue the gravy train. An under that table deal with the Russians just might be the way. If I recall correctly we paid our fees prior to this election last year.
- Russoro has tacit approval from Chavez to mine as much in VZ as they can consolidate during Chavez’s remainin term.
- The VZ government will not do anything to overtly violate their contracts with KRY and Gold Reserve.
- Russoro has wealthy unscrupulous backer who are not visible to the Canadian authorities.
- Russoro does not need to aggressively pursue KRY, time and lawsuits will diminish KRY. Russoro has two years to seal this deal. They are in no hurry.
Is there any hope?
- Perhaps KRY can find the funding to hold on for two years until after the next election.
- Perhaps KRY and GRZ can team up to hold on for two years.
- Perhaps the political situation in VZ will change.
Again there is no satisfaction for me in this analysis. Please someone convince me I am wrong. I have 57k shares and am way in the red. KRY is still a compelling story. I will hang in here through victory or the cooling of the final ember.