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Message: Re: Why gold is likely heading down: Blame it on the 'China Price'

IMO totally different situations with 1990 Japan and current China.

Seems implaudible that China will stand by like the Japanese. The Chinese are far more likely to provide significant fiscal stimulus and pour out money, ultimately an inflationary move.

The China problem is a growth slow down, widely predicted to follow the Olympics. This problem is amenable to fiscal stimulus.

The root problem in Japan was a real estate bubble that was supported by banks in collusion to continuously inflate rela estate values over decades to support refinancing over and over (sound familiar - US housing bubble). In one particular case involving a major international hotel, the hotel was built for about $80 million and was refinanced repeatedly until it carried a $500 million mortgage. The Japanese government then ignored the problem, which allowed the long term deflationary period to occur.

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