NB- You have my vote on #2:

massive liquidation of gold positions by desperate hedge funds and central banks to raise currency.

Our mine would still be very profitable at this level, but production at best is 18-24 months away. Gold could be $750 then or $1500. I think building a mine as gold doubles in price would be stablizing for shareholders would might keep more hands in after a permit. A definite plus for anyone planning holding longer.