It is a little long but interesting for future economic events.

It 'a crisis affecting the global economy?

The answer is by Olivier Blanchard, chief economists of the IMF, which interviewed by Federico Fubini in the Corriere della Sera text responds: "The emerging countries grow by 6 percent next year and this will have political implications. 100 percent Growth in 2009 is from them. There will be a shift in power, China will emerge from these events in a stronger position. " Very interesting statement: Earthquake act invests in the United States and Europe, it is Japan but China? What is and what the role of Beijing? Stand the system? What is the state of health of China's economy?

Let's see some facts. In the first six months of the year, as he wrote in the Economist number, compared to the catastrophe of western markets, one third of global GDP was produced by China. Then, from July, the meltdown of long wave came and it was manifested by a rather glaring slowdown in exports as well as a quick contraction of the real estate market quotations. At first sight, signs of storm. In truth, it seems that the prospects are unlikely.

China - while forced to review its development model but for very different reasons from those who suggest the seven Great to consider a reform of international finance - is along a road opposite. That is handling deliberately slowed down its GDP growth to stabilize, in the year that will be in a positive sign between 8 and 9 per cent, as necessary to secure employment and to give breath to domestic demand. This is the challenge of Beijing: a substantial turn. If the surplus shrinks import-export potential offered by the internal market is such as to ensure, at least on paper, the immediate future rather quiet. The West has to cope with the recession. By contrast, China with a readjustment of its positive trend.

To continue along this path - once brought under control inflation which fell from 8, Feb. 7 to 4.9 in August - China needs to strengthen its welfare (or almost non-existent today), thaw accordingly a savings bank (the families do not spend because they prefer to put money in the bank needed to retirement, the education and health), and then distribute tax incentives for the production sostener is to stimulate consumption. Of course, because an ambitious growth plan to have further success requires that banking foundations are not as shaky in Europe and the United States.

China has reshaped its system of credit in the late nineties. Today, the giants seem to suffer much less than their American and European dirimpettai, the mortgage crisis is far: Unlike the United States where buyers of homes were financed up to 100 percent and maybe without guarantees, banks in China arrives grant funds only in the presence of a deposit of the applicant at least 20/30 per cent of the total sum, as much as 40 percent if it is second home. In general (Economist data) only 7 percent of bank lending is allocated to the property sector, total loans to customers of banks do not exceed 65 per cent of the collection and exhibition of Chinese families amounted to 13 percent of pil against 100 percent of American households.

Systemic data that does not prefigure a stalemate. Indeed.

Many voices have been raised to ask China to help the sick. Demonstration that Beijing is, at this juncture, the real locomotive of the global economy. Some governments (USA head) have called for direct intervention with the liquidity on international markets. Wen Jiabao, the premier. responded by explaining that the "best contribution" to the care from the Chinese side is to ensure "a stable and sustained growth." Like him wrong? After all, if - as he explained the chief economists of the IMF - the oxygen of 6 percent annual growth from emerging countries is a guarantee. A fortiori it is 8 or 9 in China. Of course the balance will shift. And China, with all its contradictions, will, in 2009, truly the Middle Kingdom. A good or bad? However, it is reality.