I'll break out a post I've posted a few times (mostly because I like looking at the numbers), but I'll make some additional corrections:
Okay - so let's see, I went back to check the facts... 20,761,000 measured and indicated ounces (at $550/ounce - might be significantly higher at $1,000/ounce), "The average total cash operating costs (including revenue-based royalties) are now estimated at $339 per ounce over the life of the mine and $244 per ounce during the first five years."
261,700,000 shares outstanding.
If I take $975/ounce and subtract $339/ounce, I get a balance of $636/ounce multiplied by 20,761,000= $13,203,996,000/261,700,00 = $50.45/share. If we give a generous 25% Venezuela discount you still have $37.84/ounce notwithstanding additional resources and higher future gold prices. If this thing is below $18-$20 (admittedly very conservative) post permit then we better hold on for a tremendous buy-out offer!
According to Agoracom - there are 337,000,000 diluted shares outstanding, so that would change my calculus and leave $39.18 before Ven discount. After discount, I come up with $29.39. The numbers would be $34.56/$25.92 @ $900.00 gold. (KRY's latest filing lists 295,000,000 outstanding shares and 29,570,000 outstanding warrants as of 3/31/08).
http://agoracom.com/ir/Crystallex/me...
Now for my uptdate:
$800 gold minus costs of $339/oz= $461 multiplied by resources of 27,000,000 oz + $12,447,000,000/337,000,000(fully diluted shares outstanding) = $36.94/oz subtact out 25% discount and you have $27.70/oz.
Now I've been corrected by stock folks that say this is no way to value a company. That you have to wait until they are in production and figure out EPS..., but this is where we are now, and I like to imagine these #'s!
