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Message: Gold price will help when permit comes - story

Gold price will help when permit comes - story

posted on Jul 02, 2008 03:28PM


Gold's rally probably won't get a summer break

Most analysts expect gold to rise even during the off season

By Myra P. Saefong, MarketWatch
Last update: 7:00 p.m. EDT July 2, 2008
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold won't likely get a break this summer as investors seek out alternatives to falling confidence in the economy, and the strong investment demand may couple with physical demand in the fourth quarter to lift prices back into record territory, analysts said.
"The gold market in the past has been seasonal, with the rule being 'sell in May and go away'," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com.
The seasonal pattern usually meant that gold would see a lull in demand beginning in May and lasting until the middle to the end of August, with main demand appearing in the final quarter of the year and lasting until the end of May, he said.

But for the month of June, gold futures prices climbed more than 4% and they gained almost 11% in the first half of this year.
"Expectations of a quiet summer in the gold pits have been summarily dismissed as a confluence of bullish factors have led gold to rally sharply and test the high side of the recent trading range," said Mark O'Byrne, a Dublin-based executive director at Gold and Silver Investments Ltd.
And gold's likely to continue its rally in the second half of the year -- "as it did last year and has done most years since the inception of the gold bull market," he said.
Some analysts say the latest bull market began in 2002. That's when prices began a steep climb from around $280 an ounce.

O'Byrne, like many analysts, expect gold prices to climb right back to their futures price record of nearly $1,034 an ounce, seen in mid-March, and maybe even beyond. He expects to see $1,200 in the coming months before the precious metals suffers from a bout of correction and consolidation.
Still, there are lots of changing influences for gold traders to consider these days.
Investment party
The average gold price in the first half of 2008 was around $910, according to Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, and the price is up almost 43% in June from a year ago. "The widening trading range and added volatility will remain the principal features of the market as we turn the corner into the second half."
Investment buying has been key to gold's success. It's made the yearly "doldrums for gold, a vigorous season of its own," said Phillips.
Demand is at a much higher level than ever seen in the market before with the investment side of demand reflecting the performance of "gold as a monetary metal," he said.
Overall demand for gold climbed to $20.9 billion in the first quarter -- more than double the level of four years earlier, according to a report from the World Gold Council released in May. See full story.


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