While Hugo's "reported" popularilty, somewhat confirmed by his referendum loss, is at a low point, it's hard to speculate on his future based on that.

More telling IMO are recent press comments that former generals are critical. Until the end of his term in 2012, it seems that the most substantial risk to Hugo is his own military, which would certainly receive US support in a coup attempt.

Bottom line -- Hugo has had about six years and he has accomplished very little, other than to let oil production slip and nationalize some industries. He needs to placate the people, which is about jobs -- like miners working for Crystallex.