Chris - 1st: TSX should be trading higher due to the dollar difference. It will not be exact because of different end of day volatility but the Canadian PPS should be higher.
Your assessment is pretty probable.
Right now there is no news and general consensus is that any permit development is weeks if not months away. So the MM's and big players can play with the PPS.
You have the MM throwing very large volume up on the ASK to paint a picture that there is major distribution going on. This is to scare retail into selling ahead of what they will perceive as a pending drop.
When the above does not work, they are dumping large lots of house shares from one hedge to another again to scare retail into panic selling when they see a sea of RED on LVL II.
When the above does not work alone, they are using the above plus they simultaneously pull most of the BIDS which causes the dump to takeout the retail BIDS and create a greater impression of a breakdown.
This is normal trading volatility on low volume...no heavy distributio, but neither is there heavy acumulation.
This morning and yesterday we saw more selling pressure until late when the panic selling could not be created. After the last atempt this morning, volume started to build on the BID and they worked the PPS back up to $1.69BID - $1.70ASK which I believe is where the market thinks the PPS should be.
That is my 2 second view on the action.