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Message: China the economic powerhouse

How can a country with such expected enormous growth in the use of power not need base metals in massive quantities? The future is bright, even though it's been a tough slog for those of us in junior miners...

China powers ahead with energy revolution

CHINA’S President Xi Jinping called for a national ‘energy revolution’ with an expanded role for gas to ‘restrain irrational energy consumption’.

The statement in June 2014 also called for a ‘revolution in supply security in diversifying into non-coal energy sources’.

China, the world’s most populous country with a fast-growing economy, has been the world’s largest energy producer and consumer since 2010. It has overtaken Germany as the world largest export nation and the US as the world’s largest economy.

It became the world’s largest oil importer, overtaking Japan in 2010, due to its energy hunger and a simultaneous decrease in oil demand in the US.

China’s national energy demand is projected to consume about 80 per cent more than the US by 2035. Its GDP grew 18-fold between 1980 and 2010.

Its demand for oil, gas, hydro, wind and solar is projected to grow faster than any other country.

China will account for around 40 per cent of the world energy demand rise from 2011 to 2025 and 31 per cent between 2011 and 2035. It will make China the most important and influential actor in world energy markets.

China will also replace the US as the world’s largest oil consumer before 2030.

China faces a dual challenge - an energy demand projected to rise by almost half by 2035 and, at the same time, to shift its energy mix from coal to gas and non-fossil fuels like nuclear power and renewables.

China is the world’s largest coal producer and consumer. Its primary energy mix is still based on high coal consumption. China consumed as much coal as the rest of the world in 2012.

It plans to build another 50 coal plants, which may produce an estimated 1.1 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year. The plan aims to reduce CO2 emissions in China’s largest cities, but will ultimately shift pollution to other regions.

According to its 12th Five-Year Plan, the Chinese government hopes to raise its non-fossil fuel share - nuclear, hydropower and other renewables - to 15 per cent of its national energy mix by 2020 and reduce its CO2 emissions.

China will also account for around half the global increase in nuclear power generation by 2035 and be the largest producer of ‘climate friendly’ nuclear power after 2030.

It has 21 nuclear reactors in operation and another 28 under construction or planned.

China, the world’s largest producer of, and investor in, renewable electricity, is projected to triple renewable generation by 2035. But Chinese experts have doubts whether Beijing can meet its own energy efficiency targets and shrink its Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions.

China will require total energy investments of US$4 trillion over the next 20 years to keep its economy running and avoid electricity blackouts and power shortages. By 2035, the majority of its energy and electricity generation mix will still be based on fossil fuels.

In 2009, China also surpassed Japan as the third-largest natural gas consumer. Future annual gas demand growth averaging six per cent is expected to be the largest in the world and is due to China’s efforts to diversify its energy mix to reduce air pollution.

China has been a net natural gas importing country since 2007. Its natural gas imports dramatically increased to more than 30 32 per cent of China’s gas demand in 2013 and are forecast to increase to half by 2020. It imported gas via pipelines and as LNG from 17 different countries in 2013, making it the world's third-largest LNG importer behind Japan and South Korea.

China had six operating LNG import terminals in 2013 and eight under construction. It is also developing one of the world’s largest LNG shipping industries.

China’s gas import demand could be even higher because projected gas production will depend on the progress of China’s unconventional gas production - shale gas, coal-bed methane/ CBM and tight gas - and widespread reforms and investment in its wholesale gas sector. Coal-bed methane production is planned to triple by 2015.

China has an ambitious plan to expand its coal-to-gas (CTG) production by using abundant low-cost coal reserves and building the world’s largest synthetic natural gas (SNG) industry to reduce energy imports. Its first CTG plant began production at the beginning of 2014. There are 50 CTG projects being developed.

China has huge potential for shale gas exploration and production almost matching the world’s largest shale gas reserves in the US. China’s geology is more complicated and its shale gas resources are mostly in deeper formations, which will increase production costs.

China’s economic boom has created an enormous regional and global energy demand and raised countless foreign and security policy questions for regional and global stability.

http://www.worldreview.info/content/china-powers-ahead-energy-revolution

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