Re: Downside risk vs potential upside
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 17, 2016 12:04AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
Why do shareholders always think Teck is the one that is going to buy SC or if they see the full potential CF as a whole company buyout. Teck owns 75% I'm sure that's enough for them, they might be influencial in who the buyer of our 25% is though.
Hey Always, I know you are new here so Ill clarify why Teck will buy us out as it has been repeatedly shared for years on this board....It just makes no sense for Tck not to take us out first. I doubt anyone will buy us without knowing a production decision since they would not control their destiny. But once a positive production decision is made our 25% becomes quite valuable.
If you are Teck, you; 1) Buy us out, for say 1 Billion, 2) Make a production decision (public or to just potential suitors) and 3) Sell something like 40% to ______ (partner of choice) for say 2.5 Billion.
Now you are cash positive 1.5 Billion from the 2 transactions, which will fund much of the 60% expense that you now have to develop the mine. And then you simply enjoy the 60% kickback for 50+ yrs with little to no money invested.
Correct me if Im wrong, but this 3 step process could all be done at one time and reported as one major deal (much like a sign and trade in the NBA). CUU gets what they want, Company X gets the 40% of the resource for a price they are comfortable with, and Tecks shareholders wont likely react poorly because this news doesn't hurt the bottom line in the short term, but gives them 60% of a huge mine with very little cost in the long term.
I am obviously just throwing out ballpark figures here, but I am curious about 2 things that perhaps someone on here can answer:
1) If the inferred 191 t was added in, the exchange rate considered, what does that lower our cost/lb to today?
2) Including that 191 t, are there any recent comparable takeover sales that we could use to create an estimate for what Shaft would be worth? How off would my 2.5 B estimate for 40% be? Im thinking I am being very conservative...in which my scenario, in reality, could actually play out so that Teck has no cash to front to develop this thing.