Another quote about Goldman Sachs predictions show that they are actually quite flexible on their long-term outlooks. Maybe in another few months they'll adjust it again.
Anyway, screw China, the future is India. It is now India's turn to emerge as the "factory of the world", according to an article in Chinese official media, citing the economic downturn in China forcing companies to turn to India for manufacturing.
As China faces an economic downturn, the question of whether India will replace China as the factory of the world is being debated at length, especially when analysts predict India's economic growth rate will surpass China's in the coming years, the article said.
In its latest report, Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday trimmed India’s growth forecast for FY16 to 7% from 7.5% predicted earlier due to drier-than-usual weather conditions. It is lower than government’s forecast of 8.1-8.5% and the Reserve Bank of India’s 7.6% for the year.
All that crap is going to be manufactured somewhere. If China wants to change its economy from export to consumption, fair enough, but someone else will fill the void. It appears that India is striving for that mantle.
Goldman says it now sees copper remaining at just $4,500 a tonne throughout 2017 and 2018 - that's a massive reduction from their previous forecasts of $7,000 and $8,000 a tonne respectively.
"Though we have been bearish on copper on a 12-month forward basis for the past two and a half years, we have maintained a more bullish medium to long-term stance on the assumption of Chinese copper demand growth of 4% per annum and a major slowing in supply growth around 2017/2018," Goldman analysts Jeff Currie and Max Layton write.
