Pay me now, or pay me later
posted on
Aug 14, 2015 03:19AM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)
I have been trying to this quote from Rick Rule several times today and I finally found it. The concept is that in some ways the current rout of copper prices is great for us - longer term. The lower prices causes supply disruptions and/or limit new capacities coming on line. While he is talking about oil prices, I believe that the same logic applies to copper prices. I have made a mental note that when our CUU share price increases - don't be in a hurry to sell - I belive that the ride up will be dramatic. It may still be a few years away but I'm waiting and sadly it may get worst before it gets better.
....if oil prices fell back into the $40 to $50 range… and hold there for two or three years… capital investments in oil wells would fall. This would significantly impair their production capabilities.
In that case, any increase in demand will likely take the oil price to the $125 or $150 level.
But if oil prices stay in the $60 to $65 range for the next two or three years any demand response would likely only take the oil price up to $70 to $80.
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From: http://bonnerandpartners.com/oil-prices-hit-new-high-for-the-year/
Oil prices hit a new high for the year this week, as you can see from the chart below.
On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of U.S. crude hit $61.43 – its highest level in 2015.
This is being driven in part by rising demand.
The International Energy Agency says global demand for crude oil will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day this year. That would bring daily average demand to 94 million barrels.
Last year’s average was 92.6 million barrels a day.
But what’s really interesting is that oil prices are climbing despite news that OPEC production just hit its highest level in three years.
I recently talked to resource investing expert and chairman of Sprott U.S. Holdings Rick Rule about the long-term outlook for oil.
The full interview was included in the May issue of Bonner & Partners Investor Network. But today I want to share with you one of the key takeaways…
Rick told me that if oil prices fell back into the $40 to $50 range… and hold there for two or three years… capital investments in oil wells would fall. This would significantly impair their production capabilities.
In that case, any increase in demand will likely take the oil price to the $125 or $150 level.
But if oil prices stay in the $60 to $65 range for the next two or three years any demand response would likely only take the oil price up to $70 to $80.
That’s a consequence of our ability to increase production from well-maintained oil fields.
As Rick put it:
It reminds me of the old Purolator oil filter commercial. A mechanic is on the TV screen saying, “You can pay me now,” holding up a $10 oil filter, “or you can pay me later,” holding up a $1,500 blown engine.
Rick also explained why today’s beaten-down resource markets offer contrarian-minded investors a rare opportunity to capture “explosive” gains when the next bull market in commodities takes off.
More important, he passed on his top speculative recommendation for how to profit in the next commodities bull market.
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This is also along the same lines - taken from: http://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/rick-rule-sprott-stansberry-resource-outlook/?nameplate_category=Daily
Getting to the crux of his talk, Rule said that today’s low prices in the resource sector will ultimately lead to one of two scenarios:
Rule used the example of oil to illustrate the differences between the two scenarios. For instance, if demand for oil increases (as in the first scenario), its price will eventually rise, likely hitting the $80-per-barrel range; however, if the current low oil price knocks enough production out of the market (as in the second scenario), large amounts of supply will be eliminated and the oil price may rise up to $130.
For resource investors, both scenarios are positive as they will ultimately lead to higher prices — hence Rule’s “pay me now, or pay me later” mantra. And though Rule wasn’t keen to predict when exactly prices will rise, he did remind the audience that “night follows day.” He concluded, “get ready — it’s going to be a good few years.”