This might have been posted before but since there is some analysis attached I found it interesting. I will post a link to the full article below, but this is the final analysis (thank you Mr. Bernie Roseke):
My analysis
So what do I think? Here are a few thoughts for a Copper Fox investor, or potential investor, to consider.
- The market is terrible right now. Not just bad, but terrible. It is unlikely that Teck will back in and commit to a $3.2 billion expenditure for only 75% of the production under these market conditions. That being said, if market conditions improve Copper Fox could be a good “threshold play” with potential massive upside.
- Teck’s Highland Valley mine near Kamloops, BC (500 km south) is producing copper at a similar grade to Schaft Creek.
- Teck is still counting reserves from its Galore Creek property. Thus, the implication is that they believe the project is economic, at the right time, and under the right circumstances. If Galore Creek is economic, Schaft Creek probably is as well. Investor’s have talked at length about a possible combination. Besides the shared access road, I don’t see alot of synergies because they are 50 km apart, across several mountains, and will require their own processing. Synergies will be minor at best.
- If metal prices increase Teck is in a position to become the major producer in the region (Galore Creek plus Schaft Creek). This is an advantage I would not want to give up if I was them, and based on long term metal prices this is probably an important possibility.
- Big, company making deposits for majors are becoming very, very scarce. Barrick’s CEO highlighted the lack of new “super-majors,” defined as 20 million ounces plus, at the LBMA conference a few months ago. The golden triangle has at least three super majors, Schaft Creek being one of them (well, it’s very close on a gold-equivalent basis). The only question is how to mine it economically.
- If Teck does not back in, Copper Fox will search for options, and eventually find a partner when the copper price moves beyond $4.00, possibly on more favourable terms.
My final analysis is this: Schaft Creek will be a mine. There could be some jostling because Teck might not actually back in. They could take an equity stake, or the agreement could be renegotiated. Maybe they will indeed walk away, but with long term worldwide trends the way they are (depletion of resources, increase of metal prices) big deposits like this are almost a necessity for a junior gold investor. One would, of course, hope they back in and this is a very decent possibility.
--http://www.junior-gold.com/copper-fox-metals-feasibility-study/