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CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Message: Cobre Panama value

Cobre Panama accounts for C$17.52/share

After reading everything I could get my hands on I also agree the capex will approach $7 billion. $1.225 billion for 80% of the deposit at about 5 cents a pound on 30 billion pounds. While this may credit pounds unproven it's a fair assesment. The RJ projected shortfall is a reality with $1.1 billion unfunded. With expansion of the costs a 24% partner will be required. I can see where this is effecting the value. Add in political and social risks, this supports the valuation.

"At a capital cost of $7 bln, we estimate Inmet would have to borrow or raise $2.0 bln to fund its 80% share of the project, resulting in a debt to total capitalization ratio of 35%, assuming the entire $2.0 bln was funded through debt (24% debt to cap at $6.2 bln and 80%). Even if a portion of the $2.0 bln funding gap is financed through equity, the resulting additional leverage and shareholder dilution without the protection from further cost overruns, presents a risk the company may not be willing to take. "

Worth a read. http://www.andrewjohns.ca/sites/default/files/IMN_20120430%20Cobre%20Panama%20-%20Evaluating%20the%20Impact%20on%20Inmet.pdf

My conclusions:

Panama rates in at 88% of a Schaft Creek. Yes, it is gigantic and yes, it has even more potential than we currently see in the drills. So does SC and we know it. It's the negatives that drop its score. I don't think they would have too much trouble finding a partner since one is trying to take it over lol. I have more issues with labour and costs. They got a good deal with power generation but that could be better but may change for the worse. The IRR is based off slightly optimistic marcos.

http://www.inmetmining.com/files/pdf/2012/Cobre%20Panama%20BESR%20-%20Rev%20B_v001_l9917m.pdf

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Dec 17, 2012 08:44AM
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