posted on
Oct 11, 2012 04:55PM

Welcome To the Copper Fox Metals Inc. HUB On AGORACOM
CUU own 25% Schaft Creek: proven/probable min. reserves/940.8m tonnes = 0.27% copper, 0.19 g/t gold, 0.018% moly and 1.72 g/t silver containing: 5.6b lbs copper, 5.8m ounces gold, 363.5m lbs moly and 51.7m ounces silver; (Recoverable CuEq 0.46%)

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Ha-ha, yeah $8 looks great when I put it into my spreadsheet as well.
However, 8 bucks a share are probably the type of numbers that management does not want us throwing around or expecting.
Taking a look at the Prefeasibility Study done back in 2008, the before tax NPV, discounted at 8%, was $2.764 billion dollars. For simplicity sake, lets calculate CUU's portion if Teck were to back-in for 25%.
~25% x $2.764 billion = $0.691B or $691 million
$691 million / 422.1 million shares = $1.64/share
Okay, so based on old and very outdated numbers, CUU minimum value should be ~$1.65, as we all expect the NPV to improve for the BFS. The question is by how much? Double? Triple? There are obviously a number of factors that will contribute to improving the economics of the project. Of course, there are a few uncertainties as well surrounding the CAPEX, something that cannot be ignored.
Then there comes the problem of determining the value of the other lands not included in the agreement, the controlling interest, etc.
Backing into an $8 share using the same methodology above (I know, it is very simplistic), would give an NPV of $13.5 billion. I sure hope people are not expecting these types of numbers because you will be seriously disappointed. Lastly, I know your comment was tongue in cheek but it is always good for a small reality check.
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