Chops, we already have Elmer stating he'll try to get CAPEX close to the one in PFS. Where do you get your $4-$5 billion numbers from?
Well, I fully believe Elmer is trying to keep it at or below what it was and I don't doubt he and others have tried very hard at this. I just think it is a near impossible task given a variety of factors when compared with the 2008 PFS (3.7billion capex I believe).
- Increased steel/metal costs.
- Higher wages (affecting capex and opex)
- Bigger operation (more trucks, big crushers and mills, bigger buildings?). How can you go from 100k TPD or 120k to 180k and not increase the capex some? Hard to do.
- A positive is the NTL, but we'll see what difference this makes in the scenarios they have developed.
So not being negative here, but trying to be realistic re: the capex. We are talking about a very big remote operation here. Think of an increased capex as inflation over the last few years and a bigger project ... and if metals prices continue to hold steady or go up, or we hit some higher grade holes, that will more than make up for increased capex. I think we're all guessing a bit here until the BFS drops, but I think we'll follow suit to most other big operations with increased capex the last few years.
GLTA