Looking at this year's plan: We may get the FS +- a week of the target. I don't know if the reRE will be anywhere near the Q2 deadline.

Another thing about the reRE. It's going to come out at the wrong time so I bet it gets delayed into Aug. Even July would be better than the intended April/May time frame. The problem is that July is Teck's eleventh hour.

The root of the problem last year was the delay. If you look at the expenses you can see the huge impact it had on us. The time factors will limit what we can get done. 3 month for assays and 2 months for a few holes. (4 if all the drills are still there). 5 months max to get results. If we drill starting May 1 then we get final results in Sept. The clock starts in April and expires in July.

Because July is the final date The reRE will have to come out just before that. My charts show that as the low point with a small potential to go a bit lower. The historical data shows this going back 50 years. Current factors will accelerate the events points on the markets. This may not effect the buy out price much but will effect the minds of share holders to a large degree.

More on the last years expenses. We advanced the studies a lot because cash was not going to expanding the exploration. We need to pay for the completion of the studies and raise money for the drilling. I suggest a large PP even though there’s a risk Teck might back in suddenly. If they did we would have watered down and have to demand compensation for it. This is one of the typical problems Elmer faces. If he doesn’t know what Teck is going to do he ends up taking a bunch of small PP’s. Kinda sucks.

I said we should take a big one and get on with it not so much as an “In your face Teck” but as a “we have a contract to complete”. So raise the money, set a final date and spend it. I would have set my date beyond the estimated date as provided by our contractor so that I could include more work for the reRE. I would also be looking at the timing of global events. I think Elmer has done this. That leaves us with the question of why is this being extended into the traditional low months? I can’t believe Elmer would do that. So the next stop is the Teck date of July.

BTW. Recognia says Teck is about to slide $15. I looked at the technical analysis and it certainly does look like that is in progress. I chalk it up to Galore. This shows that the general market does not know about the SC numbers. They may have factored in the slump in metals and not looked beyond that where metals are set to rise rapidly. So for the short term Teck will be sold. (They also show New Gold is set to slide despite the new production coming online).

Returning to what we need to see happen. We are behind on the exploration and ahead on metallurgy. Taking some time to distill my thoughts led me to conclude that we actually have to focus more on the turn key so we have to balance exploration with finalization. Roads, permits and power must be moved up the scale. I paid particular attention to what went on their website and what the full document held. This is tell tale. Clearly they don’t want people to focus on the delay caused by our former contractor. But, there’s a silver light there. It gave us the opportunity to refine our numbers a lot.

We are going to use both methods of evaluation. One because the contract requires it and the other because it provides a more realistic representation of risk. It could show a worse case than the standard method and should show a significantly better case where the world regains some sensibility. How much better? About 8 billion better. If we could get the last year in there it could have an upside of 12 billion. That would translate into another buck or two for us at 25%.

There’s a lot of talk about Galore lately. I say simply this. Teck is not going to spend 6 billion to get 110 million a year in profits. Galore MUST share infrastructure. No, they can not use the same mill. If they can get upwards of 250 million a year through savings then it might be worth keeping. The idea that someone wants to buy a turnkey like that… It will have to be sold cheap. Teck investors are not happy as they hoped it would pay off. This is a factor in the Recognia findings. The Teck investors I know consider it a bump in the road. Some have asked me about CUU as the replacement and I said that is most likely what will transpire. Teck may head off the slide by “doing nothing” with Galore but leverage their position by acquiring us in a timely fashion. Consider that Teck has 90 days after an offer is made for Galore. Anyone else thinking an offer for it might be deliberately timed with our clock? I do. (July again!). Just for the record the guys who called the last 6 years the most accurately all agree that July sucks. It is the best time in the cycle to buy stocks.

So July keeps popping up. What can we do with our schedule to optimize our own results. We don’t like it that Teck is getting muscled on Galore but it may turn out that it’s the best thing that could happen. Interestingly, Royal Gold is our friend. I wonder how much they will be influencing the on goings here. (Thinking out loud with my fingers).

Teck sees the July thing as a problem and decides they need to act? They knew well in advance that Nova would cut and run. I think I wrote about this months ago. I didn’t go into detail of who was instrumental in making it happen but did go into the why part. Now we see NG wanting to spin out copper as predicted. I’ll be tickled pink if I was right back then. I seem to recall a few lively discussions about my conspiracy theories lol. Just for fun I should publish all my emails on CUU when the deal is finally done. Bragging rights just might be earned. Still, there are people on the Teck fence arguing against me. None of them saw Teck in this position with respect to Galore.

So if Teck decides to act what balance of power will they want and what finance will be there at the end of March. (Another clear signal that we are working for mutual benefit.) Will Teck strike right after the Q ends? That would send a signal to Galore interest. It would suggest they have a good position because of all the stuff we’ve brought up over the last year. It would add value to it. It would give them a better negotiation position because it relies in CUU. Also, the best time for them to raise money is March and the first week of April. So our FS date might not be alignment of the stars. There’s just too much to suggest this is all part of the plan. While we could use this to our advantage, Elmer has spent a lifetime building his rep with these kinds of people and he’s not ready to retire yet.

This leads me to conclude that our deal will be done right after the FS. To facilitate it we may have to accept less cash or shares and a greater opportunity. The other scenario is Teck looks for self preservation and greedily takes us out 100%. We are long term cash in the bank for them. With a solid grip on the copper market they would be able to look at iron again. This gives them a sure thing vs a slightly riskier long term investment in iron ore. Given the 4,7,9,10 cycle that’s coming the safe bet is the better choice. A bit less return for a lot less risk. Another thing, this would have a better resale prospect than iron if push came to shove for Teck down the road. There are 3 other companies without long term prospects in copper. We don’t see too much pressure on the iron side.

Could we have poured money into the studies and drilling last year? Yes, without a doubt. But we needed the study and the site locations of the mine plan and we didn’t have those so drilling was impacted. We claim to be an exploration company yet this is not what we’ve done. We sacrificed exploration. We are building a case for mining but emphasis went to the wrong things if we are to claim that we are a pure explorer. We are going overboard on the FS instead of just showing the $1 profit as required by the contract. Because of this I see it as we intend to partner if we don’t get bought out. The rest of my thoughts are as above.